US NATGAS: Henry Hub Midday Update
Henry Hub front month longs liquidated after overnight highs jumping north of $4.50 on record LNG feedgas demand; drop today was probably driven by hedged producers and strong production numbers
- Dec 25 is trading at $4.269, down 1.07% on the day.
- Jan 26 is trading at $4.499, down 0.88% on the day.
- Intraday front month volume on NYMEX is about 125,000 lots.
- Henry Hub futures remain in an uptrend. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at $4.211, the Oct 2 high. The move higher also delivered a break of a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 10 high.
- US dray gas production has pushed over 111 bcf/d over the past three days.
- “Producers are probably coming in to sell on the move up early to start the week,” said Darrell Fletcher of Bannockburn Capital.
- LNG feedgas demand today is 18.19 bcf/d, down from another record high set yesterday Nov 10. The peak was supported by a full return from Corpus Christi operations following several days of reduced demand at the end of last week. Plaquemines also hit a new peak yesterday of 4.0 Bcf/d, which is 158 MMcf/d above last week and nearly 400 MMcf/d above the prior month. The facility’s flows are now ~5% above its DOE non-FTA export approval level, suggesting there may be ~0.4 Bcf/d of additional feedgas demand to come before the facility is at full operational capacity assuming a 15% feedgas-export ratio.
- The NOAA 6-10 day temp outlook shows slightly cooler revisions in weather, particularly in the southwest.
- BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 111.10 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 111.79 Bcf/d.
- U.S. dry gas consumption is estimated at 94.84 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 84.72 Bcf/d.
- Pipeline exports to Mexico were estimated at 6.24 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 6.29 Bcf/d.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
