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• RES 4: $87.355 - 4.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $86.065 - 4.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $84.008 - High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $77.275 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 29 high / low range  
• PRICE: $74.247 @ 08:31 GMT Dec 30
• SUP 1: $70.543 Low Dec 29  
• SUP 2: $65.310 - 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: $58.099 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish  and the volatile session yesterday that included a sharp pullback, appears corrective for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at $65.310, the Dec 29 low. On the upside, the bull trigger is at $84.008, Monday’s high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

Gilt futures trade either side of late Monday levels but stick to a contained 16-tick range around the open, last -7 at 91.21 with core global FI markets off Monday highs.

• Our technical analyst notes that recent price action highlights the Dec 16 low (90.50), and the Nov 27 high (91.93) as the important short-term directional triggers.
• Yields essentially unchanged across the curve, with 10s oscillating either side of 4.50% in recent weeks (4.49% last).
• GBP STIRs also essentially unchanged, with BoE-dated OIS fully discounting the next 25bp rate cut come the end of the June MPC (albeit with 21bp of easing priced through April) and 39bp of cuts priced through November. Terminal rate pricing steady around 3.35%.
• SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0.
• Little of note on the UK calendar between now and the new year. Final manufacturing PMI data due on Friday.

ERZ6 rose almost 3 ticks yesterday, but upside was contained by the 97.90 figure and the contract remains well below the ~98.00 level seen at the start of this month. The ECB’s December decision was balanced on net, with the hawkish reaction to the policy statement/updated projections pared by a balanced and non-committal press conference from President Lagarde. There is little conviction at this stage to shift 2% terminal rate pricing, with hike expectations more tangible in 2027. 

• Of the 27 analyst reviews we read following the December ECB decision, 23 look for the deposit rate to remain at 2% through 2026. Exceptions on the dovish side are Morgan Stanley (2x more 25bp cuts to 1.50% terminal) and Bank of America (1x more 25bp cut to 1.75% terminal). Meanwhile, TD Securities see a 25bp hike by the end of next year.
• Focus in Q1 will be on whether start-of-year price resets (particularly in services) contribute to another bout of core disinflation, and whether improving momentum in sentiment data is realised in hard economic figures. Implementation of Germany’s fiscal spending plans remain a key point of interest.
• Euribor futures are +0.5 to -1.0 ticks versus yesterday's settlement levels.
• Note that with year-end effects seemingly contributing to volatility in overnight money market rates, we caution over-interpretation of ECB-dated OIS implied rate changes. The ESTR overnight rate rose to 1.934% yesterday from 1.926% on Dec 24, 1.925% on Dec 23 and 1.932% on Dec 22.