BTP TECHS: (H6) Resistance Remains Exposed

Volatility noted in the precious metals complex, with spot silver now down 5% at ~$75/oz after registering a fresh all-time high at ~$84/oz in Asia hours.

• Gold is ~1.7% lower at $4,455/oz after topping out just ahead of $4,550/oz on Friday.
• The most pronounced move comes in palladium, which is more than 12% lower at ~$1,700/oz after bulls failed to force the first move above $2,000/oz since ’22.
• Bullish technical setups remain in place across the space.
• U.S. President Trump’s positive rhetoric surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict was flagged as a potential trigger, despite familiar sticking points remaining in place.
• Thinner trading conditions over the Christmas-New Year period will be contributing to price swings as well.

Industrial profits are expected to stabilise and rebound in 2026, potentially achieving circa 10% growth by end-2026, mainly driven by a moderate price recovery, Yicai.com reported citing Zhang Jingjing, chief macro analyst at China Merchants Securities. The figure grew by only 0.1% for the first eleven months, facing pressure to maintain a positive reading for 2025, partly due to structural adjustment as the government’s “anti-involution” campaign has temporarily suppressed production and sales expansion by some industries, said Zhang Di, chief macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities. 

The yuan will see continued two-way fluctuations and any one-way trend is unsustainable, China Securities Journal reported citing analysts. The U.S. dollar index may rise in the future after the recent sharp fall amid relatively rational expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, the dollar index could rise passively should the euro and yen depreciate, which could also passively pressurise the yuan, the newspaper said citing Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities. The offshore yuan has fluctuated around the 7.0 level against the dollar after briefly breaking through the 7.0 mark last Thursday.