US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bullish Phase
Feb-12 17:35
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-31 High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 112-25 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg
- RES 1: 112-23+ High Feb 12
- PRICE: 112-21+ @ 17:35 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 112-01 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Feb 3
- SUP 4: 111-09 Low Jan 20 and the bear trigger
Treasuries continue to trade closer to their recent highs and the current bull cycle remains intact. This week’s gains have strengthened the short-term uptrend, signalling scope for a move towards 112-25 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg. Clearance of this price point would open 112-31, the Dec 18 high. Initial support to watch is 112-01, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'26 30Y Ultra-Bond Sale
Jan-13 17:35
- -2,732 WNH6 117-30, sell through 117-31 post time bid at 1227:48ET, DV01 $501,000.
- The Ultra-bond contract trades 118-01 last
US DATA: CPI Imputation Shares Reverse Tentative Improvement Seen In November
Jan-13 17:24
- The December CPI report saw a reversal in the modest improvement in imputation shares seen with the November report relative to September for the commodities & services side of the report.
- Different cell imputation rose back to 40% after 34% in Nov for a joint record high with September in data going back to 2019. This is the share of the non-housing survey that had to widen the geographical area when it came to collecting each specific item.
- This share started the year at 10% before climbing following budget and staff cuts, whilst it previously peaked at 15% in the pandemic when in-person surveys weren’t possible.
- The housing survey imputation shares were similar to prior months meanwhile, with a 92% non-interview share of 92% after the same in both Nov and Sep. For these non-interview cases: “rent is imputed by the average change in rent observed for housing units within the same nominal rent class (low, medium, or high rent) within the same location. If this source pool is insufficient, the pool is expanded across geography similar to the method used in the C&S survey.”
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 30Y Bond Auction Re-Open
Jan-13 17:22
Tsy futures remain firmer ahead of the $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UP1) at 1300ET. WI currently running around 4.836%, 6.3bp cheap to last month's sale. Today's results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
- December auction recap: Treasury futures hold near recent highs (USH6 +16 at 115-28) after the $22B 30Y auction re-open (912810UP1) near in-line: 4.773% high yield vs. 4.774% WI; bid-to-cover at 2.36x vs. 2.29x prior.
- Peripheral measures: indirect take-up receded to 65.38% vs. 71.0% prior; direct bidder take-up rose to 23.46% vs. 14.05% prior; primary dealer take-up 11.16% vs. 14.056% prior.
