JGB TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle In Play

Feb-27 19:02

* RES 3: 136.10 - High Nov 17 '25 * RES 2: 135.35 - 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 '25 - Jan 21 bear...

Historical bullets

MNI: mni: fomc maintains rate target at 3.5%-3.75%; vote 10-2

Jan-28 19:00
  • MNI: FOMC MAINTAINS RATE TARGET AT 3.5%-3.75%; VOTE 10-2
  • GOVS WALLER, MIRAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF 25 BP CUT
  • NO CHANGE TO GUIDANCE ON FUTURE CUTS
  • FED: UPGRADES GROWTH TO 'SOLID' FROM 'MODERATE'
  • FED: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE'SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF STABILIZATION'
  • FED: INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED

FED: Instant Answers: Fed Holds Steady; Waller, Miran Preferred 1/4 Cut

Jan-28 19:00
  • Fed funds rate range maximum: 3.75% 
  • Number of dissenters on rate move: TWO. Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller preferred a 0.25% fed funds rate cut at this meeting. 
  • Interest rate paid on reserve balances: 3.65% 
  • Standing repo operations rate: 3.75%

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact

Jan-28 19:00
  • RES 4: 0.8813 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg   
  • RES 3: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
  • RES 2: 0.8781 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
  • RES 1: 0.8714/46 50-day EMA / High Dec 31 & Jan 21
  • PRICE: 0.8662 @ 17:12 GMT Jan 28
  • SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
  • SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
  • SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

Recent weakness in EURGBP signals the potential end of a corrective recovery between Jan 6 - 21. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant bear cycle. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.8644, the Jan 6 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 0.8746, the Jan 21 high.