US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Extends

Dec-18 14:28
  • RES 4: 113-22+ High Nov 25 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 113-09   76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
  • RES 2: 113-07   High Dec 3 
  • RES 1: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
  • PRICE:‌‌ 112-26 @ 14:18 GMT Dec 18
  • SUP 1: 112-06/111-29   Low Dec 16 / 10 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 111-19   1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
  • SUP 3: 111-11   1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing 
  • SUP 4: 111-00   Round number support 

The spike higher in Treasuries today highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continued retracement of the recent Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg. The move higher has exposed 113-00+, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 113-07, the Dec 3 high. It is possible that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a key short-term support. 

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls

Nov-18 14:25

US Cash Opening calls, NDX should be close but above Yesterday's low.

  • Fair value opens: SPX: 6,643.0 (-0.4%); DJIA: 46,199 (-0.8%/-391pts); NDX: 24,659.2 (-0.6%).

SONIA OPTIONS: Call Fly buyer

Nov-18 14:25

SFIF6 96.55/96.70/96.80c fly, bought for 2 in 3k.

US SWAPS: Natixis Recommend 3s30s Swap Spread Curve Flatteners

Nov-18 14:15

Natixis recommend initiating 3s30s swap spread curve flatteners.

  • They note that H225 has seen “a large move wider across the curve for various reasons, including but not limited to deregulation, a potential change in the Fed’s target rate, a quicker end to QT, significant rate locking flows and potential for future Fed TOMO operations during periods of repo tightness”
  • While they think “many of the themes that have pushed spreads here are either priced in or overly priced” they suggest that “there is nothing near term that will disprove any of those themes.”.
  • That said, Natixis write “while we think front end spreads can remain bid, our overall curve views on cash bonds has us bearish longer term spreads, and heading into 2026 would prefer to express this via a swap spread flattener”.