FOREX: Greenback Reverses Higher as Powell Downplays Economic Concerns
Jun-18 19:47
- The US dollar spent much of the pre-Fed session trading with a moderate downward bias as President Trump hinted at potential talks with Iran, which fleetingly boosted risk sentiment. On the FOMC release, this greenback weakness extended as the Fed confirmed the median dot for 2025 year-end rates as steady in predicting two further cuts this year.
- USDJPY traded down to a low of 144.34 on the release, while EURUSD tried to consolidate gains back above 1.15.
- However, higher median Fed dots for 2026 and 2027 and a relatively optimistic view of economic activity and the labour market prompted a sharp dollar reversal higher through Chair Powell’s press conference, with the USD index rallying to fresh session highs.
- Once again, USDJPY was in focus here as the pair rose back above 145.00, narrowing the gap to the overnight highs and initial resistance around 145.45. Further out, key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high.
- Both the EUR and GBP were laggards amid the dollar reversal, both notable underperformers across G10. For GBPUSD, we have printed fresh pullback lows as the move extends below 1.3415, placing greater attention on the next important support, which lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA.
- Thursday remains busy on the central bank front, with the SNB kicking off the calendar. This will be followed by decisions from the Norges Bank and the BOE. In terms of data, New Zealand GDP and Australian employment figures are scheduled.
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US TSYS: 30Y Holds 5% Level Amid Broad Post-Downgrade Rally
May-19 19:39
Treasuries recovered from early weakness to close flat/stronger Monday, with bull steepening in the curve.
- Following on from Friday's post-close surprise downgrade of the US's AAA credit rating by Moody's, yields rose sharply in the early going.
- While over the weekend White House officials shrugged off Moody's decision, there was significant attention on the apparently deteriorating fiscal trajectory overnight as House Republicans cleared a procedural hurdle to get the "Big, Beautiful" tax bill closer to completion.
- 30Y yields notably touched their highest since Nov 1 2023 (5.0353%) - up 13.5bp from Friday's ratings downgrade announcement - before an impressive reversal lower on the day (just 1+bp up from pre-downgrade).
- Despite little in the way of headline catalysts - China expressed displeasure with the US's guidance against the use of some Huawei chips, bringing a brief risk-off reaction - Treasuries rallied alongside equities for the rest of the session (the TY upturn started with the equity cash open).
- We heard from multiple Fed speakers, including Bostic, Jefferson, Williams, and Kashkari, all of whom reiterated the FOMC's patient approach on cuts amid economic uncertainty, and Williams and Bostic in particular suggesting that the next cut wouldn't seriously be contemplated until after the summer. Reaction was limited however given the market's already-low implied probability of a cut before September.
- Data was relatively thin - Conference Board leading economic index had its sharpest drop since 2023 but avoided an outright recession signal.
- Latest levels: the 2-Yr yield is down 3.1bps at 3.9681%, 5-Yr is down 3.2bps at 4.0611%, 10-Yr is down 2.2bps at 4.4553%, and 30-Yr is down 2.6bps at 4.9183%.
- Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) down 2.5/32 at 110-08 (L: 109-20 / H: 110-09)
- Tuesday's schedule includes the Philly Fed nonmanufacturing survey along with another slew of Fed speakers, including Collins, Barkin, Musalem, Kugler, Hammack and Daly.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
May-19 19:30
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6463 @ 16:42 BST May 19
- SUP 1: 0.6356 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6356, the 50-day EMA.
OPTIONS: US Rates/Bond Options Summary: May 19 2025
May-19 19:21
Monday's US key rates/bond options flow included:
- TYM5 112.50 calls paper paid 0-01 on 5.2K
- TYM5 113.00 calls bought for 0-01 in 22k
- TYQ5 107.50 puts bought for 0-24 in 30k
- TYQ5 107.5 puts bought for 0-24 in 33.75k vs selling TYM5 109.00 puts at 2 in 35k
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