Gilts traded away from session lows after the Guardian reported that the Labour first minister in Wales insists “that she is not planning to say anything on Keir Starmer's leadership today - despite reports to the contrary”.
- This comes amid Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, calling for Starmer to step down, confirming earlier reporting.
- Some ministers (including Reeves, Streeting, Cooper, Lammy & Reed) came out in support of the PM around the time of Sarwar’s telegraphed comments, providing further support.
- Meanwhile, comments from Downing Street point to the general election result and Starmer winning a 5-Year mandate, despite ever-deepening questions surrounding his future.
- Gilt futures breached support at the November 19 low (89.86), basing at 89.76, before a recovery to 90.102 on the ministerial support.
- Next support levels of note come in the form of projection levels (89.73/52/06), with bears remaining in technical control. Meanwhile bulls need to retake the 20-day EMA (91.20).
- Cash yields 0.5-6.0bp higher on the day, 20s under the most pressure, while last week’s dovish BoE outcome helps tether the short end, factoring into curve steepening in the time since.
- 10+-Year yields on track for the highest close seen since pre-Budget times (mid-November), with 4.60% continuing to cap moves higher in 10s for now (Nov high 4.619%).
- 2s10s less than 1bp off the ’18 closing high (94.63bp).
- Medium-dated APF supply sees lowish cover, but politics dominates.