COMMODITIES: Gold Soars to Fresh Record High Above $2,500
Aug-16 19:21
- Gold soared to a fresh all-time-high on Friday, notably rising above the psychological $2,500/oz mark. The rise follows US data indicating inflation slowed last month while retail sales surged, easing recession worries while strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve can begin easing in September.
- "Gold's data dependency remains paramount, as jobs, inflation, and economic data all have the potential to clarify the Fed's path and future monetary policy," a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
- The technical break above $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and bull trigger resumes the uptrend. The initial target of note is $2528.4, the 3.00 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing.
- WTI crude futures have weakened 1.7% on the session, keeping the front-month contract roughly flat week-on-week. Notably, Commerzbank revised their oil price forecast downwards on weak China demand with Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl by year end.
- OPEC+ has succeeded in fine tuning its supply to support prices, but planned cut unwinding could create downward pressure, according to Platts.
- For natural gas, Henry Hub has pulled back to its lowest level since Aug. 9. Indications of cooling weather, robust production levels, and a continued - albeit shrinking - storage surplus have added pressure.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: SOFR Puts Eye Rate Cut Pricing Dip
Jul-17 19:17
Mixed SOFR options leaned toward downside puts in the second half as underlying short end futures held weaker levels. Treasury option flow does include decent buying of Aug'24 10Y calls and vol sellers on the day. Tsy curves inched flatter while projected rate cut pricing into year end cooled vs. late Tuesday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.7bp (-26.6bp), Nov'24 cumulative -41.1bp (-42.9bp), Dec'24 -63.6bp (-65.4bp). Salient flow includes:
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRH6 95.75 puts 30 ref 96.46
- Block, 8,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/96.00/96.25 call condors, 6.5 net vs. 95.735/0.05%
- +20,000 SFRU4 94.81/94.87/94.93 put flys, 1.25
- +4,500 SFRU4 94.68/94.75/94.81 put flys
- +5,000 SFRZ4 94.75/94.87 put spds, 0.75 ref 95.34
- +4,000 SFRU5 95.00 puts, 8.5 vs. 96.21/0.14%
- +6,000 SFRU4 94.68/94.75/94.81 put flys 0.25 ref 94.945
- Block, 5,000 0QZ4 95.25/95.87/96.25 broken put flys, 4.5 ref 96.295/0.05%
- 4,850 0QU4 95.87/96.12 2x1 put spds ref 96.22
- -10,000 SFRU4 94.62/94.75/94.87 put flys 1.0 ref 94.94
- -5,000 SFRU4 94.93 puts, 5.5 ref 94.94
- +5,000 SFRU5 95.00/95.25/95.75 put trees 5.5 ref 96.205
- 5,000 0QQ4 96.00/2QQ4 96.25 put diagonals spds
- -3,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.25 call spds, 2.5 ref 94.945
- 2,500 0QU4 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds ref 96.22
- Block, -2,974 SFRZ5 96.50/97.50 call spds, 18
- 3,000 SFRZ4 95.31/95.43/95.56 call flys
- +3,600 SFRZ4 94.87/95.12 2x1 put spds, 2.0 ref 95.355
- Treasury Options:
- -6,000 wk1 TY 111.25/111.5 strangles, 101
- 5,000 TYU4 111.5/113 1x2 call spds
- 5,000 USU4 116/117 put spds, 54 ref 120-10
- -6,000 TYU4 111.0/111.5 strangles, 126 (expire August 23)
- 2,500 FVQ4 108/108.25 call spds
- over +26,600 TYQ4 111.5 calls (20k late Tuesday at 20)
EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed
Jul-17 19:00
- RES 4: 176.82 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 3: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 173.92/175.43 61.8% of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off / High Jul 11
- RES 1: 172.92 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 171.10 @ 16:40 BST Jul 17
- SUP 1: 170.75 Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 170.42 Trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
- SUP 3: 169.13 Low Jun 19
- SUP 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
The sharp sell-off in EURJPY on Jul 11, resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The cross traded lower again Wednesday and remains soft. For now, short-term weakness appears to be a correction. The move down has exposed key support at 170.42, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line would highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 175.43, Jun 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup
Jul-17 18:47
- Stocks remain mixed late Wednesday, the Dow still extending new highs (41,208.5), S&P Eminis and Nasdaq indexes still weaker but climbing off lows in late trade. with semiconductor stocks underperforming. Currently, the DJIA is up 236.35 points (0.58%) at 41189.52, S&P E-Minis down 71.5 points (-1.25%) at 5645.25, Nasdaq down 487.1 points (-2.6%) at 18023.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to lead laggers in late trade, semiconductor stocks weighing on the former: Applied Materials -9.03%, Lam Research -8.84%, Advanced Micro Devices -8.48%. Interactive media and entertainment weighed on the Communication Services sector: Meta -5.27%, Omnicom Group -4.07%, Take Two Interactive -2.08%.
- Consumer Staples and Energy sectors led gainers in the second half, food makers supported the Staples sector: General Mills +3.98%, Conagra +3.76%, Kraft-Heinz +3.41%. Oil and Gas shares buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices gained (WTI +2.06 at 82.82): Hess +1.93%, Chevron +1.73%, Exxon Mobil +1.48%.
- Note, after reporting earnings this morning, Citizens Financial trades +3.79%, US Bancorp +4.53%, Ally Financial -2.86%. After the close, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, Steel dynamics , Alcoa Corp and United Airlines.
- Upcoming bank earnings: M&T Bank and Blackstone on Thursday; Fifth Third, Regions Financial, Comerica, American Express and Huntington next Friday.
