GOLD: Gold Lower Again as Equities Strong

• Gold has benefited more than most in the trade war build up yet with it now in full swing, even it is suffering.
• Gold delivered only its second weekly fall for the week last week for 2025, falling by -1.52% as a general commodities rout occurred with London’s Metal Exchange having the biggest decline since early 2020.
• Having reached highs of $3,134.17 at the start of last week, gold saw forecasters restating their year-end forecasts higher and higher.
• Gold broke through $3,000 this morning at the open trading as low as $2,971.30 before bouncing back to $3,028.15.
• Gold has traded through the 20-day EMA of $3034.60 and held, with its next key technical level the 50-day EMA of $2,947.07

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 ‘23 
• RES 3: 1.1214 High Sep 25 2024 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1188 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing  
• RES 1: 1.1144 High Oct 1 2024 / High Apr 3    
• PRICE: 1.0982 @ 05:47 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 1.0882 Intraday low     
• SUP 2: 1.0824 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support     
• SUP 4: 1.0684 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level

EURUSD has pulled back from last week’s high. The trend condition remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of key resistance at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. It paves the way for a climb towards 1.1188 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 1.0824, the 20-day EMA.

NZGBs closed mixed, well off session bests, with the 2/10 curve steeper. Benchmark yields finished 3bps lower to 4bps higher after being 9-12bps lower earlier in the session. 

• Moreover, the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed 7-8bps wider. At +44bps, the NZ-US differential is at its widest since October last year.
• Markets continue to be hit by the ongoing trade-related pullback in risk appetite, although some have begun to stabilise at lower levels due to selling fatigue and profit-taking. US equity futures are down sharply but also off their intraday lows.
• Some Asian countries have said today that they will take steps to stabilise markets if needed and Japan has said it will speak with the US.
• Swap rates closed 3-9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
• "The RBNZ Shadow Board is in favour of lowering the OCR by 25bps to 3.50% this week." (per BBG)
• RBNZ dated OIS has 30bps of easing priced for April, with a cumulative 101bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the NZIER Business Opinion Survey.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 0.25% May-28 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond.