GOLD: Gold Has Volatile Night on Tariff Headlines
* Gold had a volatile nights as markets adjusted to the tariff headlines post the court ruling. * ...
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ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production YoY MAR |
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production MoM MAR |
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Cyclical Leading Index Change MAR |
| 2000GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Exports YoY MAR |
| 2000GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Exports MAR |
| 2000GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Imports YoY MAR |
| 0130GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Imports MAR |
| 0130GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines Trade Balance MAR |
| 0130GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Manufacturing PMI APR |
| 0130GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Non-Manufacturing PMI APR |
| 0130GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Composite PMI APR |
| 0200GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | Thailand Exports YoY MAR |
| 0300GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand Exports MAR |
| 1300GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand Imports YoY MAR |
| 1300GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand Imports MAR |
| 1300GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand Trade Balance MAR |
| 1300GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand BoP Current Account Balance MAR |
| 0000GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Thailand BoP Overall Balance MAR |
| 0000GMT | 1430HKT | 1630AEDT | Bank of Thailand Benchmark Interest Rate Decision |
| 0000GMT | 1500HKT | 1700AEDT | Taiwan GDP YoY 1QA |
JPY: USDJPY - Taking a Breath Around 142
The overnight range was 141.97 - 142.76, Asia is currently trading around 142.30. US stocks have held onto their gains but USD/JPY is still unable to bounce. The market will be sensitive to any positive headlines regarding trade deals and potential tariff relief in Trump's speech this morning.
- “Super Micro tumbled on preliminary third-quarter sales that were well short of estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction. Snap plunged after omitting its sales guidance for the current quarter and warning of headwinds in advertising.”(per BBG)
- “Month-end flows support the greenback and are bigger size than usual, according to a Europe-based trader.”(per BBG)
- Kyodo News, via BBG - “Tetsuo Saito, leader of the Komeito Party, said on the 29th that a consumption tax cut could be an option for economic measures in response to the US tariff measures and rising prices. "We are considering all possibilities, and a consumption tax cut is one of the things we are considering," he told reporters in Fukuoka.”
- USD/JPY chopped around on a 142 handle and is looking for direction from key data this week, bounces back to 143 should continue to see some supply, then more importantly the 145/146 area should once more offer good levels for sellers to reengage.
- Traders will be watching the long term pivotal area around 140.00. A break would really see this move accelerate opening up a bigger move back to 125/130.
- CFTC data shows Asset managers continuing to add to JPY longs, leveraged funds are now also beginning to build longs.
- Data : Local data today is on Mar IP and retail sales. In the US later, ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.95 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 140.54 @ 16:19 GMT Apr 29
- SUP 1: 139.38 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs are holding the bulk of the recent strong bullish reversal, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
