GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eurozone Sentiment Indicators Improving
After a busy week packed with central bank rate decisions, the week ahead sees focus shift towards the BOJ and a splattering of US housing data and sentiment indicators.
MONDAY
Germany Ifo Survey: The December Ifo Survey will likely show continued improvements across the German business climate, current assessment and expectations. Consensus is looking for the business climate index to improve by one point to 87.3, current assessment by a softer 0.4 points to 93.5 and expectations up two points at 82.0.
UK CBI Industrial Trends: UK industrial orders are set to weaken further in December from -5 to -9. This follows a further slide in the December prelim manufacturing PMI, which fell by almost two points further into contractive territory to the lowest reading since May 2020. Persistently high inflation, recessionary concerns, downbeat demand and increased borrowing costs are all generating negative outlooks for the UK industrial economy.
Eurozone Construction: Euro area construction faces another tough month in October, after coming close to stalling at +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y in September. Higher interest rates are reducing investment appetite in the bloc.
TUESDAY
Germany PPI: German factory-gate inflation is projected to have eased further in the October data, by an anticipated -2.1% m/m, cooling to +30.0% y/y from +34.5% y/y as lower energy prices and weak demand conditions feed through into swiftly easing price pressures.
US Housing Starts: In November, the US housing market is projected to have slowed further. Both US building permits and housing starts are seen weakening by -1.8% m/m, extending a second month of contraction. Mortgage rates have risen sharply in recent months as the Fed has tightened monetary policy, yet recent weeks have seen rates ease into December, implying some improvements in borrowing costs into year-end.
Canada Retail Trade: Canadian retail sales should improve in October, with a +1.3% m/m uptick anticipated (ex. Auto) following the -0.7% m/m fall in sales in September.
Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence remains deeply pessimistic for the bloc, yet December will likely see a third consecutive improvement in sentiment. A moderate 1.9-point improvement to -22 is forecasted, as consumers see the economic crunch and uncertainty as beyond the worst.
Bank of Japan Meeting: The BOJ is firmly expected to hold the Policy Balance Rate at -0.100% at the December meeting.
WEDNESDAY
Germany Consumer Confidence: In continuation of the gentle upwards trend, German consumer confidence is seen improving by around two points to -38 in the January projection. Minor improvements in sentiment are unlikely to filter through into enhanced consumer spending in the near-term, and are more a reflection of consumers acclimatising to a recessionary economic environment.
UK CBI Distributive Trades: UK retail advance data from the December CBI report is anticipated to show further declines in sales as consumer spending remains muted into year-end. In the recent contractive national November retail data retail is set to drag on Q4 GDP.
Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is expected to decline by -0.1% m/m in November, with the headline annualised figure to moderate by 0.4pp to +6.5% y/y, implying that inflation is firmly beyond the June peak of 8.1% y/y. The BoC hiked 50bps to 4.25% this month in what had been seen a close call with 25bps whilst more surprisingly indicating only considering the need for further hikes ahead.
Expectations are currently largely seen as pausing or a 25bp hike at the Jan 25 meeting and will be in part shaped by the November CPI print.
US Existing Home Sales: In line with Tuesday’s housing starts data, existing home sales are expected to have taken a hit in November, projected to contract by -4.7% m/m. New home sales data due Friday will likely highlight similar trends.
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence: US consumer sentiment will likely see a moderate one-point boost in December to around 101, breaking a two-month streak of declining confidence as sentiment stabilises in a weaker-than-expected end to the year.
THURSDAY
UK GDP Second Estimate: The final UK Q3 2022 GDP print should show a -0.2% q/q contraction.
US GDP: The third estimate for US GDP is set to confirm an annualised GDP level of +2.9% q/q.
FRIDAY
Italy Consumer/Business Confidence: Italian consumer confidence is projected to tick up by 0.7 points to 98.8, whilst manufacturing confidence is seen stalling at 102.5. This adds to the eurozone trend of improving outlooks, largely coupled with economies having passed apparent peak inflation levels.
Canada GDP: Canadian monthly GDP is forecasted to hold pace in October at +0.1% m/m, as growth slows into year-end.
US Durable Goods Orders: The prelim estimate will hint at the onset of contractionary durable goods orders, echoing evidence of falling new orders highlighted by PMI data over the past months. November durable goods orders are expected to fall by -0.6% m/m and stall at 0.0% when excluding transport, after +0.5% and +0.6% m/m in October.
US Personal Income/Consumption: November personal income and consumption data should see both measures slow as inflation continues to dampen disposable income. Personal income is seen slowing to +0.3% m/m and spending to +0.2% m/m (from +0.7% and +0.8%).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 19/12/2022 | 0800/0900 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Economia Forum | |
| 19/12/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 19/12/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | Construction Production |
| 19/12/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** |  | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 19/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 19/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** |  | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 19/12/2022 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 19/12/2022 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 20/12/2022 | 0115/0915 |  | CN | PBOC Rate Decision | |
| 20/12/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | PPI |
| 20/12/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 20/12/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20/12/2022 | - | *** |  | JP | BOJ policy announcement |
| 20/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | US | Housing Starts |
| 20/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 20/12/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 20/12/2022 | 1500/1600 | ** |  | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21/12/2022 | 0700/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 21/12/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/12/2022 | 0700/1500 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Suvey |
| 21/12/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 21/12/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** |  | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 21/12/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 21/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | CPI |
| 21/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | US | Current Account Balance |
| 21/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 21/12/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** |  | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 21/12/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 22/12/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | GDP Second Estimate |
| 22/12/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 22/12/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Retail Sales |
| 22/12/2022 | 0720/0220 |  | ID | Indonesia Central Bank Rate Decision | |
| 22/12/2022 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Retail Sales |
| 22/12/2022 | 0900/1000 | * |  | NO | Norway Unemployment Rate |
| 22/12/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | IT | PPI |
| 22/12/2022 | 1100/0600 | * |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 22/12/2022 | - |  | UK | House of Commons Recess Starts | |
| 22/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | Payroll employment |
| 22/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 22/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | US | GDP (3rd) |
| 22/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 22/12/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 22/12/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 23/12/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** |  | FR | PPI |
| 23/12/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 23/12/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | GDP (f) |
| 23/12/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 23/12/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 23/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 23/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | durable goods new orders |
| 23/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 23/12/2022 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 23/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | New Home Sales |
| 23/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 27/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 27/12/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 27/12/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** |  | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 27/12/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** |  | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 27/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** |  | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 27/12/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** |  | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 28/12/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 28/12/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** |  | US | NAR pending home sales |
| 28/12/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** |  | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 29/12/2022 | 0800/0900 |  | ES | Retail Sales | |
| 29/12/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | M3 |
| 29/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 29/12/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 29/12/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
