RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Mar-12 14:58
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts over 13-16 March, with the smallest deviation on those days at between 0.13-0.67GW.
- The largest deviation is seen on 20 March as the models are seen diverging, with SpotRenewables predicting wind to sharply increase from 19 March, while ECMWF estimates wind to drop. The deviation on that day is 18.65GW.
Despite these differences, both models suggest wind to be on a general upward trend until 21 March, with high volatility over the period.
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Unrounded Core CPI Estimates Centered On 0.3% M/M
Feb-10 14:41
- Due Wednesday at 0830ET, consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in January.
- The below unrounded estimates are firmly centered on that with a median 0.30% M/M or average 0.29% M/M, with a range of 0.22-0.37% M/M. It would be an acceleration from the 0.23% M/M in December, assuming no revisions in the annual update due to be released simultaneously.
- The limited early estimates for core PCE inflation at this stage average 0.29% M/M in January for a firmer acceleration from the 0.16% M/M in December.
- Whilst these estimates would see core CPI right on the cusp of rounding either to 3.1% or 3.2% Y/Y after the 3.24% Y/Y in December, well-known base effects would see a larger moderation in core PCE (from 2.79% to 2.58% Y/Y in the hypothetical case with no revisions).
USD: USDJPY is paring gains
Feb-10 14:38
- Worth keeping an aye on the USDJPY, Bond futures are extending gains, Yields are moving lower.
- The USDJPY saw another volatile overnight session, a function of the Dollar on US Tariffs risks, and had already printed a 151.16 low Overnight, although the initial support is still seen at 150.93 Low Feb 07.
- USDJPY is down to 151.65 at the time of typing.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 5Y Buy
Feb-10 14:35
- +6,800 FVH5 106-16.75, buy through 106-16.5 post time offer at 0927:48ET, DV01 $280,000. The 5Y contract trades 106-17.25 last (+2.5).
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Mar-27 20:13
