POWER: German Spot Power to Plunge
The German spot power index is expected to fall sharply for Saturday’s delivery with a sharp increase in wind output and lower demand. Germany April power is tracking a weekly increase of above 4%, closely tracking moves in EU gas prices.
- Germany Base Power APR 25 up 2% at 84.3 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 73.76 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 3.9% at 44.54 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 6% at -17.9066 EUR/MWh
- TTF jumps to the highest since March 4, pricing in a reduced chance of any increase in Russia supply amid media reports of a strike on Sudzha and uncertainty around any ceasefire arrangement in Ukraine. Mild weather at the end of the heating season is helping limit upside although Norway outages are also supportive.
- EUAs Dec25 are trading higher this morning with support from EU gas prices. The next German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will be above-average in March, with temperatures to turn cooler in early April.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to be broadly stable on the day on Saturday at 13.1C, compared with the seasonal average of 7C.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to surge to 35.9GW during base load on Saturday, from 18GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to fall to 19.26GW during peak load on Saturday, from 23.61GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 48.21GW on Saturday, down from 54.98GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 3.62GWh/h on Saturday, down from 24.9GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been lower to end at -38GWh on 4 April, from +53GWh a day earlier according to Bloomberg.
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EGB SYNDICATION: 15-year SlovGB: Books open
- Guidance: MS + 140bps area
- Size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E2.5-3.5bln)
- Maturity: 27 February 2040
- Settlement: 27 February 2025 (T+6)
- ISIN: SK4000026845
- Bookrunners: HSBC (DM/B&D) / JPM / Slovenska sporitelna (Erste Group) / Tatra banka (RBI Group)
- Timing: Books open, today's business
EURGBP TECHS: Pivot Resistance Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8347/78 50-day EMA / High Jan 6 and pivot resistance
- PRICE: 0.8297 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 0.8266/8248 Low Feb 19 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded lower again overnight but - for now - remains inside a range. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the bear trigger.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.42/92.48. These DO NOT take the UK data into account.
