NATGAS: Natural Gas COT

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10
• RES 1: 1.3467/1.3589 50-day EMA / High Jul 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3261 @ 19:49 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.3242 Low Jul 30
• SUP 3: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14   

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its latest lows. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach opens 1.3245, the May 19 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3467, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high.

• RES 4: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111-28   High Jul 3 
• RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22 & Jul 30
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-31+ @ 20:21 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures traded higher Tuesday, but faltered into the Wednesday close on the Fed decision. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, strengthening the recovery that began mid-July. Note too that resistance at 111-13+, the Jul 10 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.   

Rough Transcript of Fed Chair Powell's post-July FOMC press conference is  here(PDF)