POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Decline
Aug-15 10:51
The French and German power indices declined sharply on the day with forecasts for lower demand and higher wind generation.
- The German spot power index fell to €60.93/MWh, compared with €73.61/MWh the day before.
- The peak-load index declined to €29.98/MWh, compared with €46.22/MWh the previous day.
- German wind output is forecast at 14.57GW during base load on Saturday, up from 8.23GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to 22.89GW during peak load on Saturday, from 29.78GW on Friday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop to 45.61GW on Saturday, from 53.28GW on Friday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 16.64GWh/h on Saturday, from 27.57GWh/h on Friday.
- The French spot power index declined to €47.26/MWh, compared with €57.95/MWh in the previous session.
- The French peak-load spot fell to €27.19/MWh, compared with €30.36/MWh the day before.
- French nuclear availability edged down to 69% of capacity as of Friday morning, from 70% on Thursday.
- French nuclear reactor capacity is forecast 42.21GWh/h on Saturday, from 42.67GWh/h on Friday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 5.37GW during base load on Saturday, from 3.39GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast at 10.81GW during peak load on Saturday, slightly up from 10.74GW on Friday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 37.66GW on Saturday, from 38.58GW on Friday.
- Residual load in France is forecast to edge down to 30.79GWh/h on Saturday, from 30.85GWh/h on Friday.
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US TSYS: Broadly Consolidating Yesterday’s CPI-Induced Breach Of TYA Support
Jul-16 10:50
- Treasuries trade modestly twist flatter on the day although broadly speaking consolidate yesterday’s sell-off on the June CPI report with its signs of increased tariff passthrough.
- Treasuries outperform Gilts across the curve owing to stronger than expected UK CPI, whilst they underperform EGBs at the front end but track in line further out the curve.
- Cash yields are 0.7bp higher (2s) to 1.8bp lower (30s).
- The 10Y yield, currently at 4.473%, saw an overnight high of 4.493%, having last cleared 4.50% on Jun 11.
- TYU5 trades at 110-11+ (+ 02+) on solid cumulative volumes of 375k, albeit keeping to narrowing ranges of 110-08+ to 110-13+.
- It consolidates yesterday’s push lower to that 110-08+, seen multiple times since then, in a move that breached an important support at 110-17 (61.8% of May 22 – Jul 1 bull leg). It has also traded through trendline support at 110-23+, strengthening a bearish theme and opening 110-03 (76.4% retrace of the same bull leg).
- Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET), PPI Jun (0830ET), NY Fed services Jul (0830ET), IP/Cap util Jun (0915ET)
- Fedspeak: Barkin repeats speech (0830ET, text + Q&A), Hammack on community development (0915ET, text only), Gov. Barr on financial regulation (1000ET, text + Q&A), Beige Book (1400ET), Bostic on fox business network (1530ET), NY Fed's Williams on economic outlook and policy (1830ET, text + Q&A).
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $65bn 17-W bills (1130ET)
EQUITIES: Big Banks Still Dominating Earnings Schedule; MS, BofA & GS All Due
Jul-16 10:41
Awaiting results from Bank of America in around 10 minutes times - continuing the theme of big bank earnings that should dominate this week. Highlights today include:
- 1145BST/0645ET: Bank of America
- 1230BST/0730ET: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
- Pre-Market: Prologis, Progressive Corp
- After-Market: United Airlines
Our full schedule including timings, EPS and revenue estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIUSEARNINGS_110725_c282a28044.pdf
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Jul-16 10:40
- In FX, a corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair traded lower Tuesday. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1655, has been cleared. This shifts the focus to the 50-day EMA, at 1.1505. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. For now, the move down appears corrective and trend signals continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and a bull trigger.
- A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place and this week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs. Yesterday’s move down resulted in a break of trendline support at 1.3440. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3555, the 20-day EMA.
- A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains firmly in place and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. Clearance of both levels strengthens the bull theme and opens 149.38, 50.0% of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg. On the downside, support to watch is 145.44, the 50-day EMA.
