UK DATA: GDP Data Noisy - No Clear Implications for Bailey's December Vote
- At first glance it looks as though the majority of the weakness in GDP is driven by the Jaguar Land Rover shutdown in September (production was halted for the entire month).
- This was of course anticipated to some extent by sellside expectations but it looks as though the knock on effects to the rest of the supply chain were also larger than expected. Note that analysts had pointed to downside risks to this print from JLR.
- On the flip side services were stronger than expected on a M/M basis but there were downward revisions to earlier months that impacted the quarterly rate.
- The overwhelming conclusion to draw from this is that there is a lot of noise in this print and it's hard to really draw a strong conclusion from it without going into granular detail.
- Of course GBP FX saw a kneejerk reaction for the data but we don't think that this data really moves the needle for whether Governor Bailey will vote for a December cut or not.
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BUND TECHS: (Z5) Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 130.41 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 130.27 High Jun 20
- RES 2: 130.05 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 129.77 Intraday high
- PRICE: 129.71 @ 08:02 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 129.13/ Low Oct 10 / 128.67 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25
- SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
Bund futures continue to appreciate. This week’s early gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthens a bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher with sights in 130.05 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that moving average studies are crossing into a bull-mode position, a bullish signal. First important support lies at 128.67, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Rallying On Trade War & UK Labour Report, Syndication Eyed
Gilts rally at the open, with Sino-U.S. trade tensions and the soft UK labour market report driving a parallel 4-5bp shift lower in yields across the curve.
- Futures rally to 91.77 before fading to 91.66, nearing key resistance at 91.82.
- 10-Year yields move towards the bottom of the multi-week 4.60-4.80% closing range, last 4.615%.
- GBP STIRs trade around pre-open levels still.
- SONIA futures 0.5-5.5 higher, while BoE-dated OIS is pricing 8bp of easing through year end, with the next 25bp cut now fully discounted come the end of the March meeting.
- Comments from BoE Governor Bailey are due later today (18:00 London)
- We covered that in more detail in the post-data & morning STIR bullets. We continue to view Bailey as the key swing voter for the Q4 decisions.
- On the supply front we remain on the lookout for the syndication of the 5.25% Jan-41 gilt. We expect that to be launched today.
- Bookrunners are Barclays, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and RBC CM.
- The last 15-year syndication saw GBP8.5bln sold. We expect a smaller transaction this time and also note that the last long-dated syndication was only sized at GBP4.0bln (for the 30-year in May). We therefore expect a transaction size in the GBP4.0-8.5bln range (probably around the middle to top half of that range).
SILVER TECHS: Off Its Intraday High
- RES 4: $53.546 - Today’s intraday high
- RES 3: $52.689 - 4.500 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $52.386 - 4.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: $52.000 - Round number resistance
- PRICE: $51.763 @ 08:13 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: $46.791 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $43.308 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded to a fresh cycle high today, however, price action is volatile and the metal is off its intraday high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $46.791, the 20-day EMA.
