FOREX: GBP Pressured by UK Data, US-Swiss Trade Deal Buoys CHF
- The US Senate has passed a funding package to reopen the US government, sending it to the house which should allow for a reopening on Wednesday. The USD index has been consolidating around the 99.50 mark as details surrounding the release of US tier-one data is awaited. This left country-specific drivers in focus, with soft UK labour market data prompting GBP downside while CHF outperforms on optimism for a US-Swiss trade deal.
- A December BoE cut is now 80% and renewed downward pressure for GBPUSD looks set to snap a four-day winning streak for the pair. The bounce fell short of initial resistance at 1.3231, the 20-day EMA. Moving average indicators continue to signal a bearish trend, potentially strengthening the narrative that recent gains could be considered corrective.
- CHF outperforms following late yesterday's optimism on a potential Swiss trade deal with the US. While such a deal would be unlikely to sway SNB rates this year or the next, it should see a moderate upwards revision of 2026 GDP forecasts for the country. EURCHF sees downside pressure as a function of that at 0.9287. Key medium-term support for the pair remains at the clustered lows between 0.9206/22.
- Despite firmer consumer confidence data, AUD has reversed a touch lower this morning, eroding a small portion of the impressive gains Monday. This has allowed AUDNZD to edge lower, with the 2013 highs at 1.1586 broadly holding. Initial support for the cross moves up to 1.1513.
- Two ECB speakers as well as Norges Bank's Wolden Bache are scheduled for the rest of the day.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
