STIR: GBP 1y1y Holds Break Above Trendline
Oct-09 12:26
While the hawkish multi-week price action in GBP 1y1y looks relatively contained, failing to challenge the May closing high at ~3.75%, it is worth noting the break of the downtrend drawn off the ’23 high, which took place in mid-September.
- A meaningful move higher would require a more serious consideration of the idea that the BoE’s rate cutting cycle is over, as opposed to deferred.
- Terminal rate pricing derived from the SONIA futures strip points to around 40bp of further rate cuts at this stage.
- We continue to suggest that markets underappreciate the odds of a Q4 rate cut (~20% probability currently priced), the delivery of such a cut would probably pull GBP 1y1y back below the broken trendline, assuming the Bank did not signal that the rate cutting cycle was over.
Fig. 1: GBP 1y1y (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Sep-09 12:18
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.40% (-0.02), volume: $2.872T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.39% (-0.01), volume: $1.151T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.39% (-0.01), volume: $1.120T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Miran On Track For Swift Fed Confirmation
Sep-09 12:06
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- President Donald Trump is expected to take questions from reporters when he signs a proclamation at 16:30 ET 21:30 BST.
- At 10:00 ET 15:00 BST, the BLS will release payroll revisions for the year ending March 2025. Trump advisors are preparing a report criticising the agency's jobs data.
- The Supreme Court ruled that Trump can fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter and overturned a lower court restriction on immigration raids in Los Angeles.
- Trump is struggling to contain the fallout from the Epstein case but appears to have resolved a rift with conservative commentators, reducing his political exposure to the issue.
- CEA Chair Stephen Miran appears set for a smooth confirmation to the Fed board after Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) said he will vote in favour of Miran’s confirmation.
- The Senate Banking Committee will vote on Miran’s confirmation tomorrow at 10:00 ET 15:00 BST, teeing up a full Senate vote on September 15, a day before the FOMC meeting.
- Medicaid cuts could slow growth in health jobs.
- South Korea’s foreign minister is in Washington to discuss an immigration raid that prompted a furious reaction in Seoul.
- The risk of a government shutdown receded slightly after a 'four corners' meeting.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Puerto Rico as the US prepares to expand military operations against Latin American cartels.
- Poll of the Day: Democrats view capitalism less favourably.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP60.0mln of the 4.75% Oct-43 Gilt sold.
Sep-09 12:01
- GBP437.5mln have been on offer.
- This means GBP34.875bln of the gilt remain in issue.
