SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Deal At Risk, Israel Shifts Focus To Yemen

Dec-27 09:01

An emerging agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza is again at risk after Hamas accused Israel of changing the parameters of the deal and Israel claimed Hamas refused to supply a list of surviving hostages. 

  • Walla News reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, after the Israeli negotiating team returned from talks in Qatar, "it would not be possible to reach a [ceasefire deal] in Gaza without receiving from Hamas a list of the names of the surviving hostages that the organization is willing to release in the first phase of the deal, according to two sources familiar with the details."
  • Netanyahu: "We are unable to get names out of Hamas and I am not willing to enter into a deal without knowing what I am making a deal about and who I am going to get back," 
  • The Times of Israel reports: "[Netanyahu] warned that Israel would act against the Houthis [rebels in Yemen] with the same force it used against Iran’s other “terrorist arms,”" following a series of Houthi ballistic missile strikes on central Israel.
  • An Israeli official told the Times of Israel: “Today, when we have a ceasefire in Lebanon and less intense fighting in Gaza. We now have the opportunity to shift our attention and resources toward [Yemen]... We are also formulating a response alongside our allies led by the United States, and when the time comes, we will make sure that the Houthi forces pay.”

Historical bullets

EGB OPTIONS: RXG5 135.50/132.50 Put Spread Given

Nov-27 09:00

RXG5 135.50/132.50 put spread 2.5K given at 101/100.5.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest Option trades

Nov-27 08:49
  • ERH5 98.00/98.12/98.25c fly, sold at 1.25 in 10k.
  • ERZ5 98.125/98.50/98.875c fly, bought for 0.75 in 2.25k.

GILTS: Watching Europe

Nov-27 08:41

Gilts initially firmed alongside core global FI peers as French political and fiscal risks asserted themselves, before hawkish commentary from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel weighed.

  • Futures (H5) breached initial resistance at the Monday high (95.42), peaking at 95.57 before fading to 95.25.
  • Recovery from lows then seen, contract last +47 on the day at 95.40.
  • Zooming out, the trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions.
  • Initial resistance at today’s high (95.57), with initial support at Monday’s low (94.66).
  • Yields 3-4bp lower across the curve.
  • SONIA futures off early highs, but still flat to +5.0.
  • Late Tuesday FT interview with BoE’s Lombardelli wasn’t a market mover.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, will leave participants focused on macro/cross-market inputs.