NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Rises
TTF front month has risen 2.5% today, extending the recovery seen yesterday, amidst rising Norwegian maintenance in the coming days, curtailed feedgas flows to US LNG export facilities and limited progress towards a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
- TTF JUL 25 up 2.5% at 35.9€/MWh
- Italy’s natural gas price premium over the European TTF benchmark is rising amid an expected heat wave to offset steady renewable generation and easing storage concerns late last week, according to Bloomberg.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe edge up to 296.5mcm/d today, Bloomberg shows. Gassco shows planned outages of 36.4mcm/d today rising to 86.8mcm/d by June 5.
- European gas storage is up to 48.86% full on June 1, according to GIE compared to the previous five-year average of 59.7% full.
- EU gas storage net injection rates have risen above normal in the last week and to the highest since June 2022 on June 1, GIE data shows. Injection rates so far this summer season are just over 3.1% higher than the previous five-year average.
- Several European gas storage facilities remain unusually empty two months into the official stockpiling season, Bloomberg reports.
- NW European LNG sendout edged down to 234mcm/d on June 1 but still above the average of 223.9mcm/d in May, Bloomberg shows. US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are still curtailed by low supply to Sabine Pass, Cameron and Corpus Christi.
- Europe is regaining LNG market share this year, accounting for 32% of global LNG imports between Jan-May 2025, up five points from 27% in Jan-May 2024, according to ICIS analyst Alex Froley.
- The LNG volume at sea at least 20 days has risen 7.2% in the last week to the highest since November, according to Bloomberg estimates.
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USDCAD TECHS: Hits Bear Trigger, New Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4087 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3935 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3793 @ 17:00 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend set-up in USDCAD deteriorated further Friday, with prices slipping through the bear trigger to narrow the gap with next support. The fresh cycle low reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3943, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Phase
- RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6470 High May 2
- PRICE: 0.6445 @ 16:59 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 0.6344/6316 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support
AUDUSD remains inside a consolidation phase, having traded either side of the 0.6400 level for 10 consecutive sessions. The underlying trend remains bullish and the pair is trading close to recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6316, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.
US TSYS: Rates Retreat, Sentiment Improved Though Trade Risk Remains
- Treasuries look to finish near late Friday session lows after trading firmer on the open, higher than expected Nonfarm payrolls at 177k (sa, cons 138k) of which private contributed 167k (sa, cons 125k) triggered the early reversal.
- However, two-month revisions of -58k offset the 39k beat for nonfarm payrolls, with a similar story for private (a 42k surprise vs -48k two-month revision).
- Stocks are back near four week highs - pre-"Liberation Day" levels as hopes of some trade deal being made improved sentiment.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that "Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade... potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start." The Journal notes that "discussions remain fluid" and China "would like to see some softening of stance from President Trump".
- Currently, the Jun'25 10Y contract trades -20 at 111-07.5 vs 111-02 low -- initial technical support (50-dma) followed by 110-16.5/109-08 (Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger). Curves bear flattened, 2s10s -3.480 at 48.002, 5s30s -4.911 at 86.807.
