JGBS: Futures Weaker Overnight With US Tsys Ahead Of Natl CPI

• RES 3: 95.568 - 61.8% retracement Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg
• RES 2: 95.465 - 50.0% retracement Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg
• RES 1: 95.425 - High Dec 1 ‘25 (cont)
• PRICE: 94.925 @ 16:13 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 94.780 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 94.664 - 76.4% retracement of the 2008 - 2020 rally
• SUP 3: 94.057 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures stepped lower again at the open Monday, hitting new multi-year lows on the continuation contract. This weakness confirms the upleg posted off the late January lows as corrective in nature. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend, exposing historic support into 99.664, the 76.4% retracement for the post-Global Financial Crisis range. 

TYM6 is dealing at 110-22+, +0-09 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• "TRUMP: WE'RE TALKING TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE IN IRAN, THE PEOPLE WE'RE TALKING TO IN IRAN WANT TO MAKE A DEAL. WE'RE IN NEGOTIATIONS RIGHT NOW WITH IRANIANS" - BBG
• "Three sources familiar with the details told Channel 12 this evening (Tuesday) that there is already a mechanism that presidential advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are pursuing, with President Trump's consent of course, and that is - declaring a month-long ceasefire during which the parties will discuss the 15-point agreement, quite similar to what happened in Gaza and Lebanon." - link:
• Bloomberg - "War Knocks Global Economy With Dual Shock to Growth, Prices. The world economy's first signs of a synchronized shock emerged in business surveys revealing how the Iran war's fallout is crippling growth momentum and stoking prices."
• Yesterday, cash bonds finished showing a modest bear-flattener, with yields 1-4bps higher.
• Fed Goolsbee signalled a likely downturn in U.S. consumer sentiment amid growing uncertainty. He warned that energy shocks pose risks to both sides of the Federal Reserve’s mandate (inflation and employment). Goolsbee emphasized there is “not an obvious playbook,” calling the current environment “a bad situation for a central bank.”

• RES 3: 95.900 - High Jan 8 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 95.676 - 50-dma
• RES 1: 95.653 - 23.6% retracement Oct - Mar Downleg (cont)
• PRICE: 95.265 @ 16:12 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 95.035 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 95.011 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 94.410 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Markets have steadied above lows Monday on the back of Trump’s claims that he’s pursuing talks with Iran, however the broader trend themes remain negative for prices. Resistance to watch has shifted lower, with 95.653 representing the 23.6% retracement for the downleg posted off the October high on the continuation contract. A clear break of it would signal a short-term reversal. The bear mode set-up in MA studies is highlighting a dominant downtrend. In addition, any weakness through year-to-date lows at 95.560 has prompted further downside, opening vol-band support into 94.410.