NATGAS: Funds Raise Bullish Bets in TTF Gas Futures
Funds positioning in ICE TTF futures was again bullish for the third consecutive week with net long positioning rising to the highest since early April with the latest CoT data as of 23 May.
- TTF front month rose by almost 4% in the week to 23 April with support from curtailed Norwegian pipeline flows amid maintenance and concerns over low storage injections.
- Investment Firm net position increased by 6.67m to -170.17m
- Investment Funds net position increased by 16.53m to 100.13m
- Commercial Undertaking net position declined by 9.92m to 69.23m
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: More Sanguine Risk Environment Not Enough To Shift ECB Expectations
Euribor futures see a somewhat more durable recovery from session lows than Bunds, with the more sanguine risk environment not enough to meaningfully shift ECB easing expectations. Futures are -0.5 to -2.0 ticks through the blues at typing.
- ECB-dated OIS price 63bps of easing through year-end, ~1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close. A 25bp cut is fully priced through June.
- Over the weekend, Reuters sources reported that policymakers are “increasingly confident” about a June cut, but there is “little to no” appetite for a big (i.e. 50bp) move.
- The lack of appetite for a 50bp cut pushes back on some market excitement last week on comments from Rehn and Lane. We wrote at the time that there were caveats to those remarks which limited the dovish readthrough.
- Weekend/morning ECB speak has seen Villeroy, Kazaks, Centeno and Simkus offer support for further rate cuts, while the more hawkish Knot suggests the June decision will be “really complicated”. Rehn and De Guindos are scheduled to speak at 1400BST today.
- This week’s heavy Eurozone data calendar includes flash inflation prints for April and a first look at Q1 GDP across member states. MNI’s inflation preview will be released this afternoon.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.920 | -24.8 |
| Jul-25 | 1.777 | -39.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.633 | -53.4 |
| Oct-25 | 1.590 | -57.7 |
| Dec-25 | 1.539 | -62.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.532 | -63.5 |
| Mar-26 | 1.529 | -63.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.541 | -62.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
GILTS: UK 10yr Yield is eyeing the 4.46% level
- Gilt Technical, highlighted last Week the 4.46% Yield support, today this equates to 93.44, which is right in line with the MNI Tech resistance of 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off.
Further out, still reference 93.29:
- 4.363% = 94.33 (April and 2025 low in Yield).
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
GERMANY: CDU Unveils Ministerial Slate Ahead Of Internal Vote On Coalition Deal
Tom Nuttall at The Economist posts on X: "Confirmed by the CDU: [Johann Wadephul] will be Germany's next foreign minister; Katherina Reiche the economy minister. [Thorsten Frei] cements his position as Merz's most important lieutenant by taking over as chancellery head. SPD ministers will be announced after Wednesday." RTRS: "A former lawmaker, Reiche has been CEO of regional energy infrastructure firm Westenergie - a division of E.ON, Europe's largest operator of power grids -- since early 2020. Reiche, 51, served as a member of Germany's parliament from 1998 until 2015 and held roles as parliamentary secretary at the environment and transport ministries."
- Taggespiegel reports that the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)'s other ministers include Karin Prien in the Education portfolio. The CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) will have Alexander Donbrindt at the Interior Ministry (responsible for immigration policy) and Dorothee Baer at the Research and Technology department.
- The announcements come as the CDU holds a party conference of its 160-strong Federal Committee to approve the coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and the centre-left Social Democrats. FAZ reports Frei as saying that he expects the agreement to gain approval ahead of CDU leader Friedrich Merz's expected election as chancellor on 6 May.
- Previously, it had been reported that Frei would retain his role as CDU parliamentary secretary. However, Merz was seen as keen on bringing a close ally to the heart of the governing system as minister responsible for the federal chancellery.
