RATINGS: Friday’s Rating Slate
Potential rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch on Italy (current rating: BBB; Outlook Stable) & Sweden (current rating: AAA; Outlook Stable)
- Moody’s on Croatia (current rating: Baa2; Outlook Stable) & Lithuania (current rating: A2; Outlook Stable)
- DBRS Morningstar on the European Union (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend) & Luxembourg (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend)
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USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
- RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
- RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.05 Intraday high
- PRICE: 133.76 @ 06:31 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 131.83/130.64 Low Apr 10 / 5
- SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
- SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support
USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery in price is considered corrective and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal the end of the corrective phase and attention would turn to support at 130.64, the Apr 5 low.
GILT TECHS: (M3) Move Lower Exposes Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
- RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
- RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
- RES 1: 103.87/104.97 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
- PRICE: 103.22 @ Close Apr 11
- SUP 1: 103.05/102.74 Low Apr 11 / Low Mar 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
- SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present - recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.87 and price is once again trading below this average. The latest move lower has exposed 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8861/66 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 23
- RES 1: 0.8791/0.8829 20-day EMA / High Mar 30
- PRICE: 0.8786 @ 06:20 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
EURGBP is unchanged. The cross maintains a softer tone following last week’s low print of 0.8729 on Apr 4. Attention is on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.
