RUSSIA: Foreign Ministry-Russia Ready To Resume Istanbul Talks w/Ukraine
Nov-12 09:24
State-run TASS reports that, according to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's department, Russia is ready to resume talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. This confirms reporting last night from TASS, who carried comments from Russia's Chargé d'Affaires in Turkey, Alexei Ivanov, saying that "The Russian side has repeatedly emphasised that we are ready to continue direct negotiations with the Ukrainian side, with the Ukrainian delegation," adding, "If Kyiv demonstrates political will, we are ready for such negotiations at any time."
- The last in-person talks took place in late July, with little progress made beyond the exchange of prisoners and remains of dead combatants. The Russian side was criticised by Ukraine and its allies for sending what was deemed a low-ranking junior delegation to the talks, in comparison to Ukraine, which sent ministers to the negotiations.
- The head of the Ukrainian delegation, National Security Council Chair Rustem Umerov, is in Istanbul for discussions intended to "unblock" the process of prisoner swaps.
- The speculation comes as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov returned to the political frontlines after a rare and lengthy absence that raised speculation that the collapse of the Budapest summit with US President Donald Trump may have resulted in him falling out of favour with President Vladimir Putin. Speaking in a presser on 11 Nov, Lavrov claimed that Moscow is ready to resume talks with Washington over the summit, but did not mention any talks with Ukraine.
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FOREX: AUD Rallies, JPY Offered on Smoother China Language
Oct-13 09:20
- US markets are partially closed for Columbus Day on Monday, leaving no cash Treasury trade - which should also limit volumes and price action across currency markets. With the US still in government shutdown, data releases this week are further limited: although the BLS confirmed on Friday that this Wednesday's scheduled release of US CPI will go ahead on October 24th. Modestly stronger risk sentiment today has been fueled by the more complementary tone from Trump on China over the weekend, keeping low-yielders on the back foot while Antipodean currencies outperform.
- BoE's Greene & Mann are both set to appear today in speeches that could set the tone for UK trade this week. No fewer than 14 MPC appearances are on the schedule, and with no rate cut fully priced until April next year, markets will look to see if any speeches suggest this timeline can be brought forward, particularly if this Tuesday's jobs data comes in weaker-than-expected.
- Into the MPC speeches and the run of UK data, GBP/USD is off last week's lows, but inside the Friday range. This leaves the 1.3262 low as key support this week, a break below which exposes the 200-dma of 1.3178 and levels last seen at the beginning of August. It remains difficult to see a protracted GBP/USD sell-off absent a move in the USD however, and with an October Fed rate cut fully priced, there may be limits on how much further the greenback can rally from here.
- As was the case last Monday, the JPY is the weakest currency in G10. USD/JPY is back above 152.00, but a further rally above 152.64 will be needed to erase the sell-off triggered by Trump's threats to raise tariffs on China on Friday. Politics remains a key driver of the currency, with opposition parties set to meet tomorrow to discuss the collapse of the governing coalition last week. These meetings could help determine whether Takaichi goes ahead with a minority government, or looks to bring forward elections.
- The AUD/USD bounce, triggered by Trump's softer China language over the weekend, has the pair again either side of the 0.6532 100-dma. The 0.6560 50-day EMA marks the next upside level, which would go further in erasing last week's sell-off. This comes after Friday's support breaks undermined a recent bullish theme, potentially signaling scope for a deeper retracement towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low.
- Further newsflow and tone by both US and Chinese administrations in terms of rare earths and trade have the potential to induce volatility in the coming sessions. Polymarket odds for the US government to remain shut down until at least October 31st rose to above 2/3 over the weekend - suggesting that most official US data may be set for a continued absence.
EQUITY OPTIONS: Estoxx Synth Option Trade
Oct-13 09:13
SX5E (17th Oct) 5600, sold the put at 9 in 5k (100% del).
EGB OPTIONS: Large Bund Call Buyer
Oct-13 09:03
RXX5 130c, bought for 16 up to 18.5 in close to 10k.
