EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Flutter: Rise of Prediction Sites as Competition

• Treasuries drifting near the top end of a narrow overnight range - near the middle of Friday's range
• TYZ5 trades at 112-25.5 (+1.5) on thin cumulative volumes of 217k. 10Y yield +.0019 at 4.1293%.
• The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Resistance well above at 113-29, Sep 11 high and the bull trigger.
• Data: Limited to Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 0830ET, Bbg survey estimate -0.16 est from -0.19 prior.
• Fedspeak: NY Fed Williams on monetary policy (0945ET), StL Fed Musalem on economy & policy from Brookings Inst (1000ET), Cleveland Fed Hammack on banks & economy (1200ET), Richmond Fed Barkin (1200ET), Fed Gov Miran moderated Q&A from Economic Club/NY (1200).
• Politics: Congress has departed for a week-long recess without a plan to fund the federal government (Senate blocked a CR bill Friday after the House passed the measure. Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) is expected to delay a second CR vote until September 29, exerting as much pressure on Democrats as possible.
• At 1300ET, Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
• At 1600ET, President Trump expected to make an announcement on Significant Medical and Scientific Findings for America's Children.

• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and S/T weakness is considered corrective. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1667. the 50-day EMA.
• A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3441, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
• USDJPY recovered sharply from last Wednesday’s low and the pair is holding onto its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Last Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.

• RES 4: 114-15  1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-29   High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-26+ @ 11:29 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 112-22/112-15+ Low Sep 19 / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-08+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.