TURKEY: Fiscal Policy Key for Turkey's Economic Rebalancing - Fitch

Apr-26 14:44
  • An expected post-election tightening of the fiscal stance in Turkey would strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy, in the context of weakened transmission channels, Fitch Ratings says in a new Sovereigns Dashboard.
  • If sustained, this improvement in policy consistency should support lower inflation, a narrower current account deficit and a recovery in international reserves, which could be positive for Turkey's sovereign rating.
  • Fitch expect the government to reduce the fiscal deficit over the remainder of the year by slowing growth in spending, particularly that unrelated to earthquake reconstruction. New revenue-raising measures are probable, with their design likely to consider their potential inflationary impact.
  • See the full report here.

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar28 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Mar-27 14:44
  • EUR/USD: $1.0675(E710mln), $1.0700-15(E1.7bln), $1.0750-52(E803mln), $1.0815-30(E2.4bln), $1.0840-50(E1.7bln), $1.0925(E544mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y148.25($894mln), Y150.00($1.3bln), Y150.50($2.9bln), Y151.00($732mln), Y152.00-25($2.8bln)
  • GBP/USD: $1.2600(Gbp1.1bln), $1.2700-09(Gbp569mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3585-00($1.6bln), C$1.3625($744mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.2500($1.2bln)

SOY TECHS: (K4) Testing Resistance Around The 50-Day EMA

Mar-27 14:40
  • RES 4: $1371.25 - High Dec 12
  • RES 3: $1336.50 - High Dec 28
  • RES 2: $1295.25 - Low Oct 11
  • RES 1: $1252.75 - High Jan 25 key resistance
  • PRICE: $1193.50 @ 14:28 GMT Mar 27
  • SUP 1: $1128.50 - Low Feb 29
  • SUP 2: $1100.00 - Psychological round number
  • SUP 3: $1025.38 - 76.4% of the May ‘19 - Sep ‘ 22 bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 4: $985.75 - Low Sep 29 2020 (cont)

The downtrend in Soybean futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The contract has recently pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1204.81. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards key resistance at $1252.75, the Jan 25 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $1128.50, the Feb 29 low.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put spread buyer

Mar-27 14:35

ERU4 96.25/96.00ps, bought for 1.5 in 6k.