TURKEY: First Sub-1% Month-on-Month CPI Reading Since May 2023
- CPI inflation data for November came in well below expectations. M/M CPI moderated to +0.87% from +2.55% in October – below the +1.35% expected and the first sub-1% reading since May 2023 – while the annual figure came in at +31.07% Y/Y (Est: +31.60%; Prior: +32.87%). Core softened to +31.65% Y/Y from +32.05% (Est: +31.45%).
- As expected, softer fruit and vegetable prices drove much of the decline in inflation, with food and non-alcoholic beverages prices down 0.69% compared to October, contributing -0.17ppts to the total M/M figure. The lower course for food prices follows strong monthly readings in the summer months which was in part due to the drought.
- The significant slowdown clears the way for a continuation, or acceleration, of easing at the final CBRT meeting of the year on December 11. Ahead of the data, expectations appeared skewed towards a 100-150bp cut. At its previous meeting in October, the central bank cut the repo rate by 100bps to 39.50%.
- Commenting on the data in a post on X, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said he expects the moderate course in monthly inflation to continue in December. Tight monetary policy and an improvement in inflation expectations were cited among the factors that will likely contribute to more benign price growth.
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MNI: SPAIN OCT MANUF PMI 52.1 (51.9 FCAST, 51.5 SEP)
- MNI: SPAIN OCT MANUF PMI 52.1 (51.9 FCAST, 51.5 SEP)
EGBS: Bund Futures Slightly Weaker Through Open; Busy Week for Data
Bund futures trade slightly weaker through the European open, ahead of a notably busier week with ample data and, in particular, speakers. Technically, the main initial support is unchanged at 129.13, this was a resistance gap that held through mid September into October and is now marked as support. This level coincides with the 50-day EMA at the start of this week.
- Although not a technical level, the first upside area of interest is at circa 129.52 which would represent a reversal of the less dovish FOMC meeting last week - any break above the latter would see 129.73 as the next target, followed by 130.07.
- Today's manufacturing PMIs will be the final readings for France, Germany, EU, US and the UK, while the main focus will be on the US ISM Manufacturing. This print may take on additional importance given the persistence of the government shutdown and a lack of official US data.
- SUPPLY: EU 2031, 2035, 2054 (would equate to 56.4k Bund) could weigh into futures.
- SPEAKERS: ECB's Simkus, Lane, Escriva & Kocher. Fed's Daly & Cook.
SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $49.052 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: $45.963 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low AUg 27
Trend signals in Silver are bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this to unwind. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $45.963. It remains intact, however, a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.
