FED: Fedspeak Focus On Paulson After NFP Reactions
Nov-20 11:33
There are plenty of opportunities to hear FOMC participant reactions to today’s NFP September report with six different speakers scheduled. Barring those reactions, Fedspeak focus should be on Philly Fed’s Paulson after the close, who has so far given little away since replacing Harker on Jul 1. In her debut speech on Oct 13, she said the Fed should move cautiously and that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she saw easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - i.e. cutting in Oct and Dec meetings. The median FOMC participant has clearly turned more hawkish on December rate cut prospects since then, and this should be a useful update for a ’26 voter who last month described 2026 as a “long way off right now”.
- 0845ET – Hammack (’26 voter, hawk) delivers opening remarks at financial conference in a 10min slot but Bloomberg suggests set to give Q&A as well
- 0930ET – Fed Gov. Barr (voter, most hawkish of permanent voters) in AI discussion (no text)
- 1100ET – Fed Gov. Cook (voter) on financial stability (text + Q&A)
- 1240ET – Goolsbee (’25 voter, a less clear cut dove than in the past) in a moderated discussion (no text)
- 1800ET – Goolsbee in interview with PBS NewsHour
- 1815ET – Fed Gov. Miran (voter, outright dove) speaks at American Investment Council (no text)
- 1845ET – Paulson (’26 voter) on the economic outlook (text only)
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Hold On To The Bulk Of Their Gains
Oct-21 11:22
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s high, however, a bull cycle remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.20, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following the latest strong impulsive rally. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break strengthened a bull cycle and sights are on 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the trend is overbought and a retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 91.51, the 20-day EMA.
SEK: EURSEK Pierces Support With Scandis Outperforming G10 Basket
Oct-21 11:20
- SEK outperforms the G10 basket alongside NOK this morning, despite little net movement in European equity futures and SEK swap rates. SEK already outperforms the G10 basket year-to-date, and conditions appear in place for this relative strength to extend.
- EURSEK is down 0.4%, piercing the October 7 low at 10.9392. Clearance of the Oct 7 low would expose more important support at 10.9036, the September 15 low. The cross has traded in a fairly contained 10.90 – 11.10 range since the end of August. Moving average studies are currently in a bear-mode setup, reinforcing current bearish conditions.
- We’ve previously highlighted several factors that could support continued SEK outperformance in the coming months, including an accommodative monetary policy stance, an expansionary 2026 fiscal budget aimed at stimulating household consumption and positive German/European defence spending spillovers.
- The median analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expects EURSEK at 11.00 at year-end, 0.5% above current spot levels. However, forecasts range from a low of 10.60 to a high of 11.20.
- Vols imply a ~46% probability of EURSEK ending the year below 10.90, compared to a ~25% probability of the cross ending the year above 11.10. This suggests the risks to the consensus median may be skewed to the downside.
- Important Swedish growth metrics are due next week, including September credit data and retail sales, and the October Economic Tendency Indicator. The Q3 flash GDP indicator is also due. July/August monthly GDP data suggests there are upside risks to the Riksbank’s 0.5% Q/Q Q3 projection, but as always we caution that the flash activity indicators are unreliable and revision prone.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance
Oct-21 11:14
- Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance looks at interest rates and inflation -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
