STIR: Fed Rates Consolidating Dovish Waller Impact
Jan-17 11:01
- Fed Funds implied rates continue to be weighed by yesterday’s dovish musings of Governor Waller (permanent voter) which included that three or four cuts this year could be possible.
- The 41.5bp of cuts priced for the year is below lows seen after Wednesday’s CPI and has fully reversed the boost from Friday’s strong payrolls report.
- With no scheduled Fedspeak today, Waller remains the last speaker heading into the media blackout that starts tonight at midnight before the FOMC 28-29 meeeting.
- Published 0530ET, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (non-voter) hawkish comments to WSJ haven’t had a discernible impact, not helped by being taken on Tuesday prior to CPI and already known to be hawkish after her surprise dissent to a 25bp cut last month.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 8.5bp Mar, 14bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 41.5bp Dec.
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MNI: UK DEC CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -40
Dec-18 11:00
- MNI: UK DEC CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -40
- UK CBI DEC PRICE INTENTIONS 23
SONIA: OPTIONS: SFIU5 Upside Structure Trades
Dec-18 10:54
SFIU5 96.00/96.10 call spread vs. 95.50/95.40 put spread, paper paid 0.5 on 7K, buying the call spread vs 95.79 (10% delta).
GILTS: 10-YEar Yields Test Next Resistance
Dec-18 10:44
Futures through next Fibonacci support at 92.78, with the next projection from the same sequence located less than 15 ticks below prevailing levels at 92.63. We will provide an update covering some longer-term technical levels shortly.
- 10-Year yields testing their November 14 high at 4.566%.
