STIR: Fed Rates Close To Most Hawkish In Two Weeks With CPI Eyed
Oct-24 10:25
- Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s hawkish shift on a surge in oil futures, having seen little impact from Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada overnight.
- Today’s delayed CPI report is in firm focus. MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Oct2025_update_24969dda49.pdf
- Cumulative cuts from 4.11% effective: 25bp Oct, 48bp Dec, 61.5bp Jan, 74bp Mar, 80.5bp Apr and 94bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are 0-1.5 ticks lower when looking out to end-2027, leaving the terminal implied yield at 2.975% (SFRZ6, +1.5bp). It last closed higher on Oct 10 at which point US-China trade tensions increased before last week’s further decline on brief US regional bank concerns.
- Yesterday saw a further $3bn of SRF uptake and potentially chimed with a lift back higher in SOFR from 4.21% the day prior.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Remains Above Support For Now
Sep-24 10:22
- RES 4: 114-12 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-29+ @ 11:12 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 112-20+/112-15+ Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-10 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The latest pullback in Treasury futures appears corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112.10 and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
EGB SYNDICATION: Latvia Benchmark 10-Year Syndication Mandate
Sep-24 10:17
Latvia has mandated Deutsche Bank, Erste Group and Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE for a potential benchmark syndicated transaction of a Euro-denominated 10-year line, subject to market conditions, according to Bloomberg.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: New Home Sales, Build Permits, 5Y Note Sale
Sep-24 10:14
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/24 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (29.7%, --)
- 09/24 1000 New Home Sales (652k, 650k), MoM (-0.6%, -0.3%)
- 09/24 1130 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN re-open (91282CNQ0) & $65B 17W bill auctions
- 09/24 1300 US Tsy $70B 5Y Note Auction (91282CPA3)
- 09/24 #### Building Permits (1.312M, 1.312M), MoM (-3.7%, 0.0%)
- 09/24 1610 SF Fed Daly economic outlook, moderated Q&A
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
