STIR: Fed Rate Path Eases With Broader Risk-Off
Mar-06 11:49
- Fed Funds implied rates have pulled lower overnight on broader risk-off moves emanating from Europe.
- They remain firmly off dovish extremes after yesterday’s push higher that was kickstarted by a robust ISM services report.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Mar, 11bp May, 27bp Jun, 37bp Jul and 72bp Dec.
- Today sees potential spillover from the ECB decision (and more likely press conference) plus notable data releases including jobless claims, ULCs/productivity and the final trade balance. The latter gets a mention as it will be watched for details after a huge jump in imports in the advance.
- Today’s Fedspeak sees focus on Waller although it should be overshadowed by a heavy slate tomorrow after nonfarm payrolls including Powell on the economic outlook at 1230ET (text + Q&A) in the last updates before the media blackout.
- 0845ET - Harker (non-voter) on economic education (text + Q&A) – speech itself won’t touch on economic outlook or mon pol, and he retires in June.
- 1530ET – Waller (permanent voter) on the economic outlook with the WSJ (just Q&A).
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