BRENT TECHS: (F6) Corrective Phase Remains Intact
Nov-06 07:20
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9
- PRICE: $63.84 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Brent futures are trading in a range. A short-term corrective bull cycle appears intact for now. Price has recently traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $64.67. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.
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CROSS ASSET: Higher Yields boost the USDJPY
Oct-07 07:16
- The Push lower in Bonds futures will be supportive of the Dollar and especially the USDJPY, now probing a new intraday high, and eyeing the next big level noted earlier at 150.92.
- There's continued selling interest in Core Bonds and while the Volumes haven't picked up, the lower liquidity means that it takes little order size to move markets.
- US TYZ5 printed a 112.11 low Yesterday, some desks might look for support at 112.06, but better will be seen around 112.03 (4.20% in Yield).
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.75% Dec-32 / New 15-year Dec-40 EU-bond: Books open
Oct-07 07:10
2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond
- Guidance: MS + 36bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expected E4-5bln)
New 15-year Dec-2040
- Guidance: MS + 77bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expects E5-6bln)
- ISIN: TBC
- Coupon: Long first
- Maturity: 12 December 2040
For both:
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
- Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source / MNI colour
GOLD: Another Fresh All-Time High Before A Pullback To Little Changed
Oct-07 07:09
Gold has registered another fresh all-time high at $3,977.4/oz today, before a pullback to trade -$5/oz at $3,955/oz at typing.
- Fresh extension higher would target projection resistance ($3,987.3/oz), which protects psychological resistance at $4,000/oz
- Our technical analyst stresses that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and price continues to appreciate despite RSI operating in overbought territory since early September. Furthermore, the metal shows little sign of weakness during any pullbacks in spot, underscoring the bullish narrative.
- Geopolitical worry, Fed independence risk, expectations for further Fed easing, ETF & official account demand and broader concerns re: the potential for further USD weakness continue to present the central pillars of the bullish narrative.
- Goldman Sachs have lifted their December ‘26 gold price forecast to $4,900/oz ($4,300/oz prior), suggesting that “inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26 - Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying - are sticky” in their pricing framework, “in contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable”.
- They also see the risks to their “upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above rates-implied estimates”.
- We will update on broader positioning in the gold market later today.
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