US TSYS: Extending Late Lows, Yields Surpass Midweek Kneejerk High
Aug-08 19:39
- Treasuries look to finish weaker Friday - near late week lows while yields climb past Wednesday's knee jerk high of 4.2789% to 4.2868%. Futures appeared to follow German Bunds lead lower in the first half.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures trade -9.5 at 111-25.5 after the bell - first technical support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low.
- Curves mixed, short end steeper (2s10s +1.046 at 52.652 while projected rate cuts consolidated slightly from morning levels(*): Dec'25 at -58.3bp (-59.4bp).
- No data, but St Louis Fed Pres Musalem (2025 FOMC voter, hawk) said in a Q&A that he supported the July decision to hold rates as the FOMC is missing on its inflation target but not its employment target.
- The greenback rose against all others on Friday - gaining late (BBDXY +1.16 at 1204.82) after The Wall Street Journal reported that ex-St Louis Fed President James Bullard and ex-George W Bush adviser Marc Sumerlin have been added to the list of possible Fed Chair nominees (previously named Waller, Hassett, and Warsh also on the list).
- Slow start to next week's calendar, focus on Tuesday's CPI inflation data for July. Core CPI meanwhile is seen at 0.32% M/M (cons 0.3).
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
Jul-09 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6532 @ 16:48 BST Jul 09
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6474/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high earlier this month maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6474, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Jul-09 19:24
SOFR & Treasury options took advantage of the rebound in underlying futures to buy puts/put spreads (Dec SOFR put tree looking at year end Fed on hold), unwind calls with a few exceptions. Not a strong reaction to the June FOMC minutes - while projected rate cut pricing gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
- SOFR Options:
- Update, +12,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75/95.81 broken put trees, 0.5 ref 96.17
- +2,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25 1x2 call spds 1.0 vs. 95.90/0.05%
- +2,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25 call spds, 2.75
- -2,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.87 call spds, 15.0 ref 96.40/0.26%
- +2,500 SFRU5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 3.0
- -15,000 0QU5 97.12/98.12 call spds, 5.25 ref 96.745
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.00 calls, 4.75 ref 95.88
- +20,000 SFRU5 96.06/96.12 call spds, 0.75
- +6,000 SFRU5 95.75/96.00/96.25 call trees, 9.0 ref 95.865
- +4,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.62 call over risk reversals, 1.0 vs. 96.15/0.40%
- +1,000 SFRZ5 96.25 straddles, 38.5
- over +20,000 SFRQ5 95.68/95.75 put spd, 1.25 (more on a 2x3 ratio)
- +2,000 SFRQ5/SFRU5 95.75 put spd, 2.0
- 3,000 SFRU5 95.62/95.75 put spd, 3.0
- Treasury Options:
- Block, 9,000 wk2 TY 111.5 calls, 3
- 2,000 USQ5 110/112 put spds 14 ref 113-18
- 10,000 TYQ5 110.5/111.5 put spds 33 vs. 111-00/0.34%
- -5,000 TYU5 111 calls, 46 vs 110-24/0.44%
- +2,250 TYU5 110/110.5/111/111.5 call condor, 7 vs 110-30/0.05%
- 3,950 TYQ5 111.75/112.25 call spds ref 110-28
- -5,000 wk2 TY 111 put, 15
- +5,000 wk2 TY 111 straddle, 26 vs 110-28.5 to -29/0.20%
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Moderate Support Post June FOMC Minutes
Jul-09 19:16
- Stocks are drawing some support following the June FOMC minutes release late Wednesday, Treasuries extend highs, curves flatter as markets digested uneven tariff-tied inflation progress. Currently, the DJIA trades up 163.08 points (0.37%) at 44403.01, S&P E-Minid up 28 points (0.45%) at 6300, Nasdaq up 163.8 points (0.8%) at 20582.09.
- Communication Services and Information Technology sectors continued to lead gainers in late trade, interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the former with Meta Platforms +2.08, Alphabet +1.39%, Match Group +1.11% and Warner Bros Discovery +0.92%.
- Tech sector shares were supported by Enphase +4.37%, Arista Networks +3.55%, Broadcom +2.04%, Palantir Technologies +1.80% and NVIDIA +1.74% (fist company to reach $4T market cap).
- On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Energy sectors underperformed in late trade, The Hershey Co -4.30%, Altria Group -3.65%, Monster Beverage -3.58% and Mondelez Int -1.92% weighed on the Consumer Staples sector while Targa Resources -1.61%, EOG Resources -1.56%, Devon Energy -1.42% and Kinder Morgan -1.33% kept pressure on the Energy sector.
