OIL: Extending Higher On Latest Trump Threats To Iran, Scope Of Move Limited

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.76% (+0.10), volume: $3.227T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.74% (+0.10), volume: $1.307T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.74% (+0.10), volume: $1.282T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.

Monday 29 December:

• US-Israel: US President Donald Trump hosts Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida from ~13:00ET/18:00GMT/19:00CET. The fifth in-person meeting between the two of 2025 is likely to see discussions focus on the prospect of outbreaks of conflict on three fronts. Trump will be keen to push Netanyahu towards the implementation of phase two of the Gaza peace plan, amid continued Israel Defence Force operations in the strip. Netanyahu is likely to seek to impress upon Trump the threat his government sees emanating from Iran, with a desire to renew strikes on the country’s nuclear sites and those associated with Tehran’s ballistic missile program. The prospect of renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is also likely to come up in talks.

Limited Treasury option volumes overnight, scant SOFR options so far. Underlying Tsy futures modestly higher, SOFR futures running steady to mildly higher in Reds-Greens. Projected rate cut pricing retreats slightly vs. late Friday levels (*): Jan'26 at -4.8bp, Mar'26 at -13.9bp (-14.5bp), Apr'26 at -20.3bp (-20.9bp), Jun'26 at -34.3bp (-35bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • 1,000 0QH6 96.93/97.18 call spds vs. 96.75 puts
  • -1,000 0QH6 96.68 puts, 6
• Treasury Options:
  • -3,000 TYG6 112.75 calls, 32 vs. 112-26/0.45%
  • +2,000 Wed wk5 TY 112.25/112.5 2x1 put spds, 2 vs. 112-19/0.04%
  • +2,000 TYG6 113/114.5 call spds, 19 vs. 112-23.5/0.31%
  • -1,000 FVG6 109.5 calls, 17.5
  • -2,000 FVG6 108.5/109 put spds, 6.5-7
  • -3,200 TUG6 104.12 puts, 2