EUR: Extending broader gains
Aug-26 10:19
- The USD is now more mixed in G10, close to flat against SEK, CHF, AUD, NOK and CAD.
- Best early performer is the EUR, up 0.27%, and at session high.
- The Yen and the Kiwi are still the worst performers, down 0.31% respectively.
- EURUSD sees resistance at 1.0047 High Aug 22.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U2) Sights Are On Key Resistance
Jul-27 10:15
- RES 4: 121-28+ 1.382 proj of the 14 - 23 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 121-10 1.236 proj of the 14 - 23 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 120-19+ High May 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120-16+ High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119-27+ @ 11:03 BST Jul 27
- SUP 1: 118-21+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117-14+ Low Jul 21 and key near-term support
- SUP 3: 116-11 Low Jun 28
- SUP 4: 115-20 Low Jun 17
Treasuries are unchanged. The contract maintains a firmer short-term tone and price is trading closer to the top of this month's range. Attention is on the bull trigger at 120-16+, the Jul 6 low. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 14, and open 121-10, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117-14+, the Jul 21 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.
UK: No obvious drivers for recent moves
Jul-27 09:55
- Over the past half hour gilts and SONIA futures have moved lower, while GBP hit its strongest levels of the session.
- There doesn't appear to be any real headline drivers of the move, with some market participants pointing to low liquidity in markets, particularly following the linker auction.
- Gilt futures hit a low of 117.12, Dec-23 SONIA 97.30, EURGBP hit a low of 0.8398 and GBPUSD hit a high of 1.2088.
- Much of the FX moves have been reversed at the time of writing but UK FI remains at or close to its lows of the session.
MARKET INSIGHT: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Below The 50-Day EMA Pivot Resistance
Jul-27 09:52
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have recovered from Tuesday’s low. A short-term bullish theme remains intact and recent gains signal potential for an extension. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. The 20-day EMA, at 3900.64, is the first support to watch. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate. This pause in the current bull cycle still appears to be a bull flag. If correct, it reinforces short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for a break higher to open 3689.00, the Jun 10 high. Initial support is at 3467.00, Jul 18 / 19 low.
- In FX, EURUSD traded lower Tuesday. Price remains below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. The move lower yesterday raises the risk of a return back toward recent lows below parity, at 0.9952 (Jul 14). To the upside, a break above 1.0278 would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and open 1.0359, Jun 15 low. GBPUSD is consolidating and trading at its recent highs. A continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.2213. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low. Weakness in USDJPY is still considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels; 135.30, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low, and 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for stronger reversal. The primary uptrend remains intact. 139.39 is the bull trigger, Jul 14 high.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a downtrend and the latest recovery is likely a correction. The bear trigger is unchanged at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA that intersects at $101.18. The average represents an important pivot point - if breached, the move higher would signal scope for a stronger rally. While the EMA offers resistance, the outlook is bearish and the first support to watch is $93.01, the Jul 25 low.
- In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play. The contract traded higher Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the upleg. The focus is on 157.21, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing. The trend condition in Gilts remains bullish. The focus is on 118.16, 1.382 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.
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