INDIA: Exit Polls Point Towards Modi's BJP Winning Delhi Election
Feb-06 08:50
Most exit polls released following the 5 February election to the Legislative Assembly of the National Capital Territory of Delhi shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance winning a majority. Despite garnering strong support in the capital in general elections, the BJP has not governed Delhi since being ousted by the centre-left Indian National Congress (INC) in 1998.
- Of the 12 opinion polls released so far, eight show the BJP winning a majority. Three show the incumbent anti-corruption welfarist Aam Aadani Party (AAP) winning a majority, while one shows a hung parliament.
- For its part, the AAP has dismissed the exit polls highlighting that in both the 2015 and 2020 Delhi elections won by the AAP, exit polls consistently underestimated their seat totals while overestimating support for the BJP.
- Results are due to be published on Saturday 8 February. Should the BJP win control of Delhi it would solidify a strong trend for the party, having won control of the states of Haryana and Maharashtra in October and November 2024 respectively. In turn, this bolsters the Modi gov'ts standing after its disappointing result in the 2024 general election in which the BJP lost its overall majority in the Lok Sabha.
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MNI: EUROZONE DECEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.9 (NOV 42.7)
Jan-07 08:30
- MNI: EUROZONE DECEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.9 (NOV 42.7)
GILTS: Flat Start, Long End Supply Due
Jan-07 08:20
Little net movement in gilts as softer-than-expected French CPI counters earlier selling in Bunds.
- Futures +10 at 92.05,
- Bearish technicals intact in the contract.
- Initial support at the Dec 19 low/bear trigger (91.64), while initial resistance is located at the Jan 2 high (92.88).
- Yields little changed across the curve to start.
- Gilt/Bund 10-Year yield spread flat at 216bp.
- SONIA futures 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day with wider bonds off lows and BoE-dated OIS showing 57bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 56bp early today.
- DMO issuance for calendar ’25 gets underway this morning, via GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.
BONDS: Bobl/Bund Block trade
Jan-07 08:13
Bobl/Bund block trade suggest a steepener, perfectly weighted.
- RXH5 ~2.35k sold at 132.40.
- OEH5 ~4.95k bought for 117.25.
