ITALY AUCTION RESULTS: Exchange Auction
Jan-17 11:46
MEF sells:
- E4.0bln of the 4.20% Mar-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005560948) at 102.938. Pre-auction mid-price at 103.291.
MEF buys:
- E637.7mln of the 1.75% Jul-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005367492) at 99.115.
- E719.7mln of the 3.75% Sep-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005001547) at 100.105.
- E543.7mln of the Oct-24 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005252520) at 100.925.
- E1.296bln of the 1.45% Nov-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005282527) at 98.410
- E948.3mln of the 2.50% Dec-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005045270) at 99.215.
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CANADA: Politics Week: Holiday Break Begins But Trudeau Has Work To Do
Dec-18 11:46
- Parliament rises for holiday break until Jan. 29, though committees may still hold ad hoc hearings and PM Trudeau/FM Freeland will likely keep up media appearances.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win a majority government if an election were held now. Election is due in 2025 under a traditional four-year mandate but the Liberals rely on NDP to pass confidence motions and avoid an earlier campaign.
- Uncertainty for 2024 around how Liberals will meet NDP demands for expanded public healthcare as govt cuts departmental spending and interest costs are surging.
- Trudeau shoring up support within his party amid polls suggesting Canadians are tiring of him, arguing he's well equipped to beat Conservatives and gain a nearly unprecedented fourth election win.
- Govt challenged over cost of living and housing squeeze. While inflation is slowing to 3% and investors see BOC cuts maybe mid-2024, housing shortage will take perhaps a decade to solve.
- House of Commons Speaker Greg Fergus, recently named to job from governing Liberals, apologizes for partisan speech after committee recommends that and a fine. Conservatives and Bloc on committee said he should be removed. Previous speaker from Liberals recently resigned in disgrace.
- Canada votes for UN motion calling for ceasefire in Gaza, a shift from earlier comments supporting Israel’s right to defend itself. The issue has split some Liberals and may continue to do so.
STIR: Long Cover Seemed To Dominate On SOFR Strip On Friday
Dec-18 11:40
The combination of Friday’s twist flattening on the SOFR strip and preliminary open interest data point to the following positioning swings ahead of the weekend.
- Whites: Long cover seemed to dominate, aided by the well-documented comments from NY Fed President Williams, although pockets of fresh short setting were also seen (SFRU3 & H4).
- Reds: Long cover also seemed to dominate there, with net short setting seemingly only seen in SFRM5.
- Greens: The bias was once again towards apparent long cover, although one round of apparent short setting (SFRM6) tilted the net pack OI swing away from extremes.
- Blues: A mix of long setting and short cover was seemingly seen. It is hard to be definitive when it comes to SFRU6 positioning moves given the unchanged price status on the day.
| 15-Dec-23 | 14-Dec-23 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| SFRU3 | 1,114,540 | 1,102,594 | +11,946 | Whites | -59,204 |
| SFRZ3 | 1,538,346 | 1,594,351 | -56,005 | Reds | -68,132 |
| SFRH4 | 1,099,594 | 1,092,754 | +6,840 | Greens | -7,985 |
| SFRM4 | 1,001,499 | 1,023,484 | -21,985 | Blues | -2,157 |
| SFRU4 | 934,741 | 950,141 | -15,400 | ||
| SFRZ4 | 905,443 | 956,322 | -50,879 | ||
| SFRH5 | 566,132 | 573,295 | -7,163 | ||
| SFRM5 | 610,615 | 605,305 | +5,310 | ||
| SFRU5 | 592,983 | 596,391 | -3,408 | ||
| SFRZ5 | 567,084 | 578,817 | -11,733 | ||
| SFRH6 | 408,557 | 408,805 | -248 | ||
| SFRM6 | 385,183 | 377,779 | +7,404 | ||
| SFRU6 | 310,644 | 312,356 | -1,712 | ||
| SFRZ6 | 236,782 | 241,129 | -4,347 | ||
| SFRH7 | 145,025 | 143,942 | +1,083 | ||
| SFRM7 | 139,952 | 137,133 | +2,819 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Signals In Oil Futures Remain Bearish
Dec-18 11:38
- On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply higher last Wednesday. This signals a S/T reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.
- In the oil space, bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and last Tuesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $69.08, Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $67.07, Jun 23 low. Gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is $73.27, the 20-day EMA.
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