LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 19-Dec | 0800 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Economia Forum |
| 19-Dec | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 19-Dec | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Dec | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Dec | 1000 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Dec | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21-Dec | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 22-Dec | 0745 | FR | Retail Sales |
| 22-Dec | 1000 | IT | PPI |
| 23-Dec | 0745 | FR | PPI |
| 23-Dec | 0800 | ES | PPI / GDP (f) |
| 23-Dec | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 23-Dec | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 29-Dec | 0800 | ES | Retail Sales |
| 29-Dec | 0900 | EU | HICP (p) / M3 |
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3695 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
- RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
- RES 1: 1.3456 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3382 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.3226 Low Nov 15
- SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
- SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
USDCAD remains bearish, but is trading above recent lows. Recent bearish price action has resulted in new multi-month lows and confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. This also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation of the trend would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.
US TSYS: Fed Terminal Up To 5.06% in June 2023
Tsys hold weaker levels after the bell, near lows/narrow range after nearly testing overnight lows through the second half. Limited reaction to existing home sales data: -5.9% less than estimated -7.1%, Oct leading indicator off more than estimated -0.4% to -0.8% MoM.
- Tsys saw renewed selling after comments from Boston Fed Pres Collins that 75bp NOT off the table - adding to decline of year-end step-down expectations after StL Fed Bullard's hawkish comments early Thursday.
- Fed Dec hike pricing up to appr 55bp now priced on OIS, or about 20% probability implied or about +1.5bp today or 2.5bp since before Bullard opined on 7% rates yesterday. Recall that pricing went as low as 51bp in the aftermath of the October CPI reading. Terminal pricing continues to rise above 5% mid-2023 to 5.06% (5.08% pre-CPI).
- Of note, the dip in year end policy-pivot expectations has contributed to heavy short end selling which in turn extends 2s10s inversion to new all-time low of 71.410 Friday morning - to -70.307 currently.
- Of note: Fed Chair Powell to speak on Nov 30 at Brookings at 1330ET - prior to this, he didn't have a speaking engagement on the calendar before the Dec FOMC. It will be a must-watch as it comes only 2 days before the pre-meeting blackout period.
AUDUSD TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 0.6688 @ 16:08 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 0.6634/6578 Low Nov 17 / 11
- SUP 2: 0.6551/0.6545 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. The break opens the 0.6800 handle next. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, the Nov 10 low. Initial support lies at 0.6634 and 0.6578, the Nov 17 and 11 lows respectively.
