LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 02-Aug | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 02-Aug | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 02-Aug | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05-Aug | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Aug | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 06-Aug | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06-Aug | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Aug | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 07-Aug | 700 | DE | Trade Balance / Industrial Production |
| 07-Aug | 745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 09-Aug | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 09-Aug | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 13-Aug | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 03-Jul | 900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos chairing MonPol Cycles session |
| 03-Jul | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 03-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB's Cipollone chairing Productivty session |
| 03-Jul | 1130 | EU | ECB's Lane chairing panel on equilibirum rates |
| 03-Jul | 1430 | EU | ECB's Lagarde closing remarks at ECB Forum |
| 04-Jul | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04-Jul | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB's Lane Lecture at University of Naples |
| 04-Jul | 1515 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at National Statistics conference |
| 05-Jul | 700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 745 | FR | Industrial Production / Foreign Trade |
| 05-Jul | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 800 | EU | The ECB Podcast - War, geopolitics and the economy |
| 05-Jul | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 05-Jul | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB's Elderson in Panel at DiFoR Conference |
| 05-Jul | 1815 | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech at Les Rencontres Economiques |
| 07-Jul | FR | Second round election | |
| 08-Jul | 700 | DE | Trade Balance |
AUD: AUD/JPY Technical Conditions Overbought, But Fundamentals Still Supportive
AUD/JPY sits around session highs, last near 108.00. This is fresh highs in the pair back to 1991, see the first chart below. Late March 1991 levels got close to 109.55 in terms of upside levels to watch/potential targets for the market.
- The broader fundamentals still appear supportive for further gains in this cross. Recent data outcomes have heightened RBA tightening expectations, although the deciding factor is likely to be Q2 CPI, which prints at the end of July.
- For Japan, the BoJ is expected to follow a gradual path to tightening, although we should know more next week as the BoJ meets with key stakeholders in terms of its plans around tapering its bond buying plans.
- The supportive global equity backdrop is another factor, with the two series generally moving higher in tandem over recent months, see the second chart below. The same can be said for relative commodity prices, which remain firmly in the AUD's favor.
- The RSI (14) sits at 78.4, which points to overbought conditions from a technical standpoint. This is a risk in terms of the recent rally, which could be exacerbated if we see a fresh round of FX intervention by the Japanese authorities in terms of a downside correction in the pair.
- Such a scenario, if it unfolds, is likely to be deemed corrective though from a fundamental standpoint. The 20-day EMA sits back near 106.00. Dips sub this level were supported in early June.
Fig 1: AUD/JPY To Fresh Highs Back To 1991
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: AUD/JPY & Global Equity Trends
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Conditions Remain Intact
- RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
- RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 116.296 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 115.890 @ 05:55 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 115.810 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support
Bobl futures started this week on a bearish note and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, opening 115.556, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.
