LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

JGB futures have mostly traded with a positive bias in the first part of Monday trade. We were last at 145.60, +.19. Session highs came in at 145.70, while lows were at 145.42.

• The general tone in global yields through the latter stages of last week was to soften after some dovish shifts from EU central banks. This has spilled over to JGBs to some degree.
• US Tsy futures are off earlier highs (TYM 4 last at 110.25), which has likely kept JGB futures from extending higher. We do have more US Fed speak later on Monday.
• The BoJ mins for the Jan meeting came and went without much market reaction. They have obviously been superseded by last week's shift away from NIPR. The mins stated if there was a delay in exiting NIPR it could mean more aggressive rate hikes later, while financial conditions were expected to remain accommodative even when such a move was made.
• We also had a step up in FX rhetoric from FX chief Kanda earlier, but yen couldn't break higher.
• In the cash JGB yield space, most yield weakness is evident in the belly of the curve, with 7 and 10yr yields off around 1bps respectively. The 2 yr yield is holding above 0.20% at this stage. In the swaps space, the 10yr is down slightly, last near 0.86%.
• Looking ahead, tomorrow has the PPI and machine tool orders. On Wed we have BoJ board speak (Tamura), along with a 40yr debt sale.

The BBDXY index sits lower for the Monday session as we approach the London/EU cross over, last near 1245.15, off a little over 0.10%. We are up from earlier lows of 1243.55, which came post the stronger than expected CNY fixing.

• The CNY fixing was the main focus point today, as markets assessed whether we would see a run of further yuan weakness. In the event the fixing was set stronger than expected (back sub 7.1000), which has seen USD/CNY largely reverse Friday's gains.
• Prior to this we had a step up in official rhetoric from Japan's Chief currency diplomat Kanda. He described recent FX moves as being speculative and that the authorities wouldn't hesitate to act. Still, the pair could test Friday lows around 151.00 during this period or post the stronger CNY fixing. We track near 151.25/30 in recent trade, only marginally stronger in yen terms.
• The BoJ minutes for the Jan meeting were released, but have largely been superseded by last week's BoJ meeting, which ended NIRP.
• AUD/USD is higher, last near 0.625/30, nearly 0.20% firmer. Earlier highs were at 0.6544 as the currency benefited from a stronger yuan and a more positive HK/China equity tone.
• NZD/USD has lagged at the margins, last near 0.6000, up from fresh YTD lows of 0.5986.
• US yields have recovered from earlier lows, likely aiding the USD regaining some ground from earlier lows.
• Looking ahead, we have Fed speak (including Bostic again, along with Goolsbee and Cook) and some US data (new home sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing). The BoE's Mann also speaks.

After falling moderately on Friday, oil prices have trended higher again today driven by events related to Russia. Brent broke through $86 earlier but couldn’t sustain the move and is now up 0.6% to $85.92/bbl. WTI has rallied above $81 to be up 0.6% at $81.14/bbl, after an intraday high of $81.28. Crude has been supported by a weaker US dollar. The USD index fell 0.2% but is now down 0.1%.

• The focus is on Russia with Friday’s terrorist attack in Moscow, the energy sector targeted by Ukrainian drones and sanctions impacting energy exports. Drone strikes are estimated to have taken around 12% of refining capacity offline.
• India has said that it won’t take Russian oil on state-run Sovcomflot tankers because of sanctions. India has become the second largest buyer of Russian crude after China since Russia invaded Ukraine. Commentators are noting that sanctions are now impacting Russian exports and raising shipping costs.
• Iran-backed Houthis fired a missile at a Chinese-owned oil tanker sailing in the Red Sea on Saturday.
• Conditions around crude remain bullish and money managers’ net long positions are at their highest in over a year, according to Bloomberg.
• Later the Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee and Cook speak and the Chicago & Dallas Fed indices are released as well as February new home sales. BoE’s Mann also appears.