MACRO ANALYSIS: Eurozone Macro Developments Since The Last ECB Decision
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One of the more notable recent updates were surprisingly strong PMIs in the flash October report on Friday, supporting prior ECB arguments about the resilience of economic growth. Inflation meanwhile has come in largely as expected, albeit with some recent softer services momentum vs an acceleration in core goods momentum. The timing of the meeting does however come at an awkward time for digesting latest trends. Flash Q3 national accounts and September unemployment for the Eurozone are released on the day of the ECB decision along with Germany and Spain October HICP inflation, before Eurozone wide HICP inflation for October and German retail sales for September are released the day after the decision.
- Growth: Resilient But Tepid Hard Data Before Recent PMI Optimism
- Inflation: ECB Confidence In Its Forecast Intact
- Labour Market: Unemployment Rate Close To Lows, Wages Remain On Cooling Track
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US DATA: BLS's Shutdown Plan Confirms Key Data Wouldn't Be Published
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' key economic releases would be postponed in the event of a government shutdown, per the Department of Labor's plan for such an event - PDF link.
- "BLS will suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease. The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse."
- Furthermore: "The releases of economic data will likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged....A reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced."
- This was largely expected - at least for the key BLS data points in the next couple of weeks, namely the September employment report (due out this Friday Oct 3) and the September CPI report (due out Weds Oct 15)), as well as PPI (Oct 16). The shutdown would begin at midnight on Wednesday October 1 unless agreement is reached on government funding.
- It was unclear whether the weekly jobless claims reports would still be published, however, since while they are compiled and released by the BLS, they use state-by-state data and were published in 2013 during the last full federal government shutdown.
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.715%(ALLOT 61.66%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.715%(ALLOT 61.66%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 25.38% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.35% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.00
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.860%(ALLOT 70.07%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.860%(ALLOT 70.07%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 34.19% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.01% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.80% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.74
