EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Holding Onto Latest Gains
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bullish theme remains intact. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5219.78, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position. This has strengthened the current bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5715.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 174.6 pts or +0.47% at 37160.47 and the TOPIX ended 18.43 pts higher or +0.68% at 2735.52.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 31.816 pts or -0.94% at 3348.372 and the HANG SENG ended 56.95 pts higher or +0.24% at 23601.26.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 128.18 pts or +0.53% at 24126.69, FTSE 100 higher by 34.26 pts or +0.39% at 8773.26, CAC 40 down 1.6 pts or -0.02% at 7863.97 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 9.75 pts or +0.18% at 5434.5.
- Dow Jones mini up 59 pts or +0.14% at 41984, S&P 500 mini up 8.75 pts or +0.15% at 5865.25, NASDAQ mini up 23.25 pts or +0.11% at 21201.5.
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EQUITIES: EU Bank call spread
SX7E (19th Dec) 195/220cs, bought for 4.8 in 6k vs 1.26k at 174.90.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria Triple Tranche Tap: Spreads set
2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2)
- Spread set at MS + 19bp (guidance was MS+20 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E12bln (inc E1.15bln JLM interest)
3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8)
- Spread set at MS + 66bp (guidance was MS+67 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E16bln (inc E850mln JLM interest)
3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7)
- Spread set at MS + 97bp (guidance was MS+98 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E18bln (inc E1.7bln JLM interest)
For all:
- Settlement: April 30, 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Citi, DB, GS, JPM, Raiffeisen Bank
- Timing: Books to close at 10:15BST / 11:15CET
From market source
CROSS ASSET: Gilts Tick Higher & GBP Softens After Soft UK PMI
Initial market reaction to the softer-than-expected flash PMIs sees gilt futures hit fresh session highs at 92.95, adding a little over 20 ticks vs. pre-data levels, before fading back to 92.80.
- Next resistance in the contract located at 93.00, followed by a Fibonacci retracement (93.44).
- Yields 3.5bp higher to 9bp lower, twist flattening bias intact. Long end yields fail to retest early session lows.
- BoE-dated OIS covering ’25 meetings little changed to 1.5bp more dovish vs. pre-PMI levels, with ~92bp of cuts showing through year-end. Recent range extremes of ~97bp of cuts over that horizon remains untested/intact.
- SONIA futures also rally before fading a little, last -3.0 to +1.0, strip twist flattens.
- Cycle highs set earlier in April/yesterday (dependent on contract) are untested.
- Alongside the new daily highs in Gilts, EUR/GBP rallies to touch 0.8578 before fading somewhat - the 15-minute candle chart isolates 0.8587 as resistance, the downtrendline drawn off the Monday AM high.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.207 | -25.2 |
Jun-25 | 4.079 | -38.0 |
Aug-25 | 3.867 | -59.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.741 | -71.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.592 | -86.7 |
Dec-25 | 3.537 | -92.2 |
