POWER: Europe Battery Storage Capacity to Jump 36% On Year in 2025

May-07 15:05

 Europe’s battery storage market is poised for a 36% jump in 2025, with annual installations forecast to reach 29.7GWh and total capacity on track to rise to nearly 120GWh by 2029, according to SolarPower Europe.

  • Large-scale battery projects are expected to lead in 2025, as home systems shrink to just one-third of the market share.
  • The top BESS power markets over 2025 are expected to be Germany, Italy and the UK, with the countries having between 11-27% of the market share.
  • These same markets are anticipated to be the largest heading into 2029. However, the Spanish, Dutch and UK BESS markets are expected to grow – shrinking Germany’s and Italy’s to 19% and 14% respectively.
  • Germany could see annual installed capacity of 22.2 GWh/yr by 2029, with Italy and UK growing by 16.7 GWh/Yr and 22.1 GWh/yr, respectively, by the same period.
  • Additionally, SolarPower Europe urges the EC to adopt an Energy Storage Action Plan within a broader Flexibility Package to harmonise markets.
  • It also calls for a removal of regulatory barriers and integrate storage into national energy strategies.
  • According to SolarPower Europe, the EU-27 will need 780GWh of battery storage capacity by 2030 to adequately support the renewable transition.

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Historical bullets

STIR: Tariffs Pull Near-term ESTR Curve Lower; M/T Curve Still Steeper On Fiscal

Apr-07 14:58

With global markets settling after a volatile ~60 minutes of (erroneous) headline-driven trading, ECB implied rates remain off session lows alongside core EGB yields. The 1y1y ESTR swap rate is nonetheless still on track for its lowest close since December 11, 2024, currently at 1.71%. That’s down from a close of 1.90% at last Wednesday's close (i.e. before the "Liberation Day" announcement), and also well below the 1.83% seen on February 28 (i.e. before the German defence/infrastructure announcement).

  • The imposition of US tariffs – alongside the policy uncertainty that has built up over the past few months – is expected to weigh on regional demand and therefore contain inflationary pressures in the near-term.
  • Additional disinflationary channels stem from the possible diversion of Chinese goods to the EU in response to US tariffs (note: EU officials are currently considering whether to implement measures to protect EU businesses against such dynamics) and a weaker energy price outlook on the back of lower global demand and an unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts.
  • 1- and 2-year EUR inflation swaps are on track to close at their lowest since mid-2021, even as Brent crude and natural gas futures drift away from early lows through the course of today’s session.
  • However, on a 3-5-year horizon, the ESTR forward curve still sits steeper than at the end of February. This likely reflects the positive growth and inflation impulse from increased German/EU fiscal spending, possibly alongside the medium-term inflationary impact of tariffs assuming the EU retaliates. 
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Sale

Apr-07 14:54
  • -5,269 TYM5 112-10, sell through 112-11.5 post time bid at 1048:04ET, DV01 $335,000. The 10Y contract trades 112-07 last (-27).

EGBS: Bund Futures More Than Reverse Erroneous Headline-Driven Sell-off

Apr-07 14:47

Bund futures have more than reversed the sell-off attributed to an erroneous rumour that US President Trump was considering 3-month delay to tariffs on countries excluding China. That leaves futures -27 ticks lower today at 130.25, having briefly traded as low as 129.11.

  • Price action over the past ~45 minutes underscores the highly sensitive nature of global markets to ongoing US tariff developments. Where the tariffs themselves and any retaliation from trading partners ultimately land will be key to central bank and fiscal policy outlooks.
  • The 20-day EMA at 129.02 has contained downside in Bund futures intraday, and this level remains a key short-term support.
  • On the topside, Friday’s high at 131.48 presents initial resistance.
  • The German curve has twist steepened on the session, with Schatz yields down 5.5bps owing to dovish repricing in ECB rate cut expectations. 30-year Bund yields are up 3.5bps, dragged higher by long-end USTs.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have moved away from earlier highs during the course of the session. The BTP/Bund spread is 5.5bps wider at 124.5bps, dow from a high of over 130bps earlier).