EURJPY TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 3: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 160.71/162.58 High Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 158.62 @ 16:01 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 158.15 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 157.87 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 157.05 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
EURJPY remains soft and the cross is again trading lower, today. The cross has cleared a number of retracement points and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 162.58, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
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EURJPY TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.60 High Oct 30
- PRICE: 166.37 @ 16:11 GMT Oct 30
- SUP 1: 163.28 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and Wednesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The latest recovery resulted in the break of two important resistance points; 163.49, the Sep 27 high and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. This move highlights a stronger reversal. 164.92, 50.0% of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg, has also been cleared. 166.53, the Jul 31 high, has given way - opening 167.40 for direction. Initial firm support to watch is 161.85, the Oct 17 low.
US TSYS: October ADP Jobs Gain Surprise Saps Short End Support
- Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Wednesday, curves flatter with Bonds outperforming after a volatile first half.
- Treasuries opened higher on the back of strong overnight support in Gilts ahead this morning’s eagerly awaited UK Budget statement. Rates gapped lower following a much better than expected ADP jobs gain for October at 233k (cons 111k) for its strongest monthly print since Jul’23, followed by an upward revised prior to 159k (initial 143k).
- Treasury futures bounced off post-ADP lows, mirroring a bounce in Bunds and Gilts as markets digested the UK Budget statement. Mixed US data dropped at the same time with stronger than expected Core PCE inflation and Real GDP growth in the Q3 advance report technically below expected at 2.8% annualized. Comments from former Fed VC Brainard that Friday’s employment data will likely be lower due to “disruptive hurricanes, strike activity” contributed to the bounce in intermediate to long end Tsys.
- The midmorning drive to session highs was short lived, however, support evaporated as details regarding a huge increase in gilt issuance over 5 years spurred heavy selling in EGBs. Meanwhile, pending home sales stronger than expected the best single monthly increase since June 2020 while the Quarterly Refunding Announcement came out in line with estimates at $125B: $58B 3Y notes, $42B 10Y notes and $25B 30Y Bonds.
- After the bell, the Dec'24 10Y contract is trading -6 at 110-18 vs. 110-17 low, 10Y yield at 4.2823 (+.0282). Curves are flatter: 2s10s -4.377 at 10.998 (-9.646 low), 5s30s -7.240 at 34.296.
- Focus turns to Thursday’s weekly claims, personal income/spending and MNI’s Chicago PMI data, not to mention Friday's October employment data and next Tuesday's Presidential Election.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Speaks to Head of UK DMO Following Budget
- Head of UK DMO speaks about increased gilt remit in wake of Budget --- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
