CHF: EURCHF Narrows Gap To 0.9025, Sight Deposits Monday
- EURCHF continues to trade with a bearish tilt on Thursday, slipping to a session low of 0.9050 in recent trade, and eroding the week’s prior rally that was assisted by SNB commentary on a higher readiness to intervene.
- As a reminder, SNB Vice Chairman Martin yesterday reiterated an earlier statement which read "We are prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardize price stability in Switzerland".
- The phrasing of ‘would jeopardize’ perhaps places a greater emphasis on the importance of this week's cycle lows at 0.9025, with moves below this level likely to be met with additional central bank rhetoric, or active intervention. This potentially limits the attractiveness for fresh CHF longs at this juncture from a risk/reward perspective. Notably, domestic sights deposit data on Monday will show if the Bank has already started to curb franc strength.
- Should EURCHF downside persist, the Fibonacci projection of 0.8913 looks a noteworthy target, while resistance moves down to 0.9121, the 20-day EMA.
- Following yesterday's inflation data, it remains to be seen to what extent early-26 CHF appreciation will filter through to imported Swiss inflation in the coming months, with the feedthrough so far limited - likely a key topic ahead of the March 19 SNB meeting.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Recovery From Monday's Low to Over 10%
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, Monday’s impulsive sell-off highlights the beginning of a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $61.01. The 50-day EMA lies at $59.74. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Gold has recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp sell-off from last week’s high still highlights a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, marks an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at $4551.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $4274.7, the Dec 31 ‘25 low. Initial resistance is 4999.2, a Fibonacci retracement.
- WTI Crude down $0.07 or -0.11% at $62.07
- Natural Gas up $0 or +0.12% at $3.241
- Gold spot up $256.39 or +5.5% at $4916.96
- Copper up $20.5 or +3.52% at $603
- Silver up $7.25 or +9.15% at $86.5477
- Platinum up $111.39 or +5.22% at $2242.23
EQUITIES: This Week's Gains Reinforce Bullish E-Mini S&P Theme
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Monday’s rally reinforces this theme. Key support to monitor lies at the 50-day EMA at 5857.60. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6072.00, the Jan 14 / 15 high. The trend in S&P E-Minis is bullish and Monday’s strong gains reinforce this theme. The move higher also suggests that the recent bear threat merely resulted in a short lived correction. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open 7080.92, a Fibonacci projection. Key support and a bear trigger has been defined at 6814.50, the Jan 21 low.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 2065.48 pts or +3.92% at 54720.66 and the TOPIX ended 109.71 pts higher or +3.1% at 3645.84.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 51.992 pts or +1.29% at 4067.738 and the HANG SENG ended 59.2 pts higher or +0.22% at 26834.77.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 142.95 pts or +0.58% at 24940.47, FTSE 100 lower by 2.02 pts or -0.02% at 10339.36, CAC 40 up 26.28 pts or +0.32% at 8207.45 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 37.08 pts or +0.62% at 6044.59.
- Dow Jones mini up 1 pts or +0% at 49524, S&P 500 mini up 14.25 pts or +0.2% at 7016.75, NASDAQ mini up 132.25 pts or +0.51% at 25982.25.
EGB OPTIONS: RX weekly 127.50/127.00 Put Spread Sold
RX weekly 127.50/127.00 put spread 8K given at 9 (expire Friday).
