HUF: EUR Weakness, Surge in NatGas Prices Weighing on HUF
Jan-02 14:36
- A weaker euro and a continued surge in natural gas prices have both weighed on the forint during Thursday trade, despite the currency initially showing some resilience at the start of the session. Forint weakness will keep the focus for EURHUF (+0.6%) on 416.42, December’s cycle high and a key resistance. Above here, we flag 418.50, a retracement point, as the next notable topside level.
- HUF underperformance has helped PLNHUF bounce 0.45% off the 20-day EMA - an average which the cross has struggled to convincingly clear on a number of occasions over the past month. CPI data in Poland tomorrow morning could prove to be a needle mover, while unemployment rate and trade balance figures are both due in Hungary.
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SOUTH KOREA: KRW NDFs Probe Multiyear Highs - FinMin/CB Response Awaited
Dec-03 14:36
- Martial law headlines continuing to make themselves felt across KRW markets and beyond - spot KRW is markedly weaker, as markets clearly concerned over the ramifications of the measures. The installation of martial law effectively means that all activities at Parliament are banned going forward, and all media and publishers are now under direct control of the military.
- Offshore KRW forward outrights gapped higher on the headlines and are holding the vast majority of the move - the 12m NDF outright briefly printed 1,400 and a cross above would be the first time since late 2022, with offshore listing of South Korean companies hit hard (Samsung's London listing off as much as 4%), dragging global indices with them and prompting the NASDAQ 100 to open lower (as mentioned above).
- Outside of S.Korean assets, havens are gaining across the board, with Treasury yields posting a 4bps decline, and USD/JPY well through yesterday's lows.
- Focus now turns to any outcome of the SKorean finance ministry meeting - as well as any central bank response (as evidenced by the headline above).
USDJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode
Dec-03 14:33
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.40/152.58 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 148.86 @ 14:32 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 148.80 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 148.29 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
USDJPY has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today, confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle and retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The pair has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 152.58, the 20-day EMA.
FOREX: USDJPY Slips Below 149.00 Handle Amid Equities Weakness
Dec-03 14:27
- As the ICE dollar index slips to fresh session lows, USDJPY losses standing out in G10 amid the downtick in equities, briefly extending its intra-day decline to half a percent on the day and below the 149.00 handle.
- Monday’s session low of 149.08 had closely matched support at the Oct 21 low print and with this giving way, 148.17 support is next, the 50% retracement of the Sep 16/Nov 15 rally.
