EMISSIONS: EUAs Q3 2025 Market Consensus Remains Below Current Price
Sep-19 12:31
Current EUAs spot price remains above market consensus for EUAs prices in Q3 2025, reflecting strong short-term upward momentum driven up by TTF and global equities volatility and physical demand ahead of the end-of-month surrender deadline.
- The latest Germany EU ETS auction cleared at €76.57/ton CO2e, 6% above market consensus in Q3 2025.
- The mean and median market forecasts for EUAs spot price in 2025 Q3 are at €72.43/t and €72.42/t, below the latest auction price, according to Bloomberg.
- Bloomberg Intelligence projected that the EU ETS could remain oversupplied in 2025 for a second consecutive year, signalling bearish pressure on EUAs prices, reported in August.
- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group forecasted 70/t in Q3 2025, and 75/t in Q4 2025, updated on 11 Sep.
- Commerzbank AG forecasted 70/t in Q3 2025, and 75/t in Q4 2025, updated on 11 Sep.
- Intesa Sanpaolo SpA forecasted 71/t in Q3 2025, and 72/t in Q4 2025, updated on 4 Sep.
- BNP Paribas SA forecasted 77/t in Q3 2025, and 79/t in Q4 2025, updated on 1 Sep.
- Rabobank forecasted 73/t in Q3 2025, and 75/t in Q4 2025, updated on 19 Aug.
- Longer-term, ABN AMRO forecasted EUAs to rise to €145/t by 2030 and €200/t by 2035.
- BNEF expected the new 15% US tariff on the EU could lower the average EUA price forecast to €84/t by 2030.
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GILTS: 30-Year Yields Off Highs, Uptrend Intact
Aug-20 12:18
{GB} GILTS: While gilt bears managed to force the highest closing level for 30-Year yields seen in the current cycle on Monday (5.611%), they failed to challenge the intraday high registered in early April (5.659%), with the subsequent recovery leaving the benchmark at 5.55%.
- While demand for long end paper has been robust in instances of primary issuance, structural reduction in pension holdings reduce demand in the secondary market, while the UK’s ongoing fiscal fragility provides background pressure (at a minimum).
- As a result, the uptrend in play since the ’21 low remains intact, with that support line ~20bp below prevailing levels at typing.
Fig. 1: UK 30-Year Gilt Yield (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
