EMISSIONS: EUAs Q3 2025 Market Consensus Remains Below Current Price

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• At 16:00 ET 21:00 BST, President Donald Trump will hold a swearing-in ceremony for his EU ambassador. As with all Oval Office events, Trump is likely to deliver remarks to the press on a range of topics.
• The dust settled on Monday’s White House summit without substantive details on the contours of a peace deal. The two most intractable obstacles – territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine - remain without an obvious solution.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead negotiations with European and Ukrainian counterparts on a detailed proposal on security guarantees. Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine will host military counterparts from Europe today to begin discussions on security guarantees. The 32 NATO defence chiefs will also meet virtually.
• Companies are signalling price rises to guard against the cost of tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is satisfied with the tariff status quo with China.
• Trump renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Powell ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
• The White House intends to fast-track Stephen Miran to the Fed board in time for the Fed's September meeting.
• Republicans could suffer political pain from rising electricity prices.
• The Treasury Department hopes that stablecoins will shore up demand for government debt.
• The Israeli government is reviewing a Gaza ceasefire deal.
• Poll of the Day: Approval of Trump's handling of the economy is worse than at any point during his first term.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

{GB} GILTS: While gilt bears managed to force the highest closing level for 30-Year yields seen in the current cycle on Monday (5.611%), they failed to challenge the intraday high registered in early April (5.659%), with the subsequent recovery leaving the benchmark at 5.55%.

• While demand for long end paper has been robust in instances of primary issuance, structural reduction in pension holdings reduce demand in the secondary market, while the UK’s ongoing fiscal fragility provides background pressure (at a minimum).
• As a result, the uptrend in play since the ’21 low remains intact, with that support line ~20bp below prevailing levels at typing.

Fig. 1: UK 30-Year Gilt Yield (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.