EMISSIONS: EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 39)
Sep-18 11:11
A total of 16.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 4 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €77.22/ton CO2e, up 1.51% w/w, above the 10, 50 and 100-day averages.
- Despite prices trading near their highest level since Feb 2025, it’s worth noting that September has been historically the weakest month for EUAs based on five-year seasonality amid fulfilment of surrender obligation, with an average monthly return of -6.4%.
- The five-year high, average, and low returns for September all indicate underperformance compared with other months.
- The mean and median market forecasts for EUAs spot price in 2025 Q3 are at €72.43/t and €72.42/t, below the latest auction price, according to Bloomberg.
- The latest auction was at a €0.07/ton CO2e discount to the futures contract, compared with a €0.06/ton CO2e premium in the previous round.
- A total of 454mn EUAs has been auctioned so far this year, accounting for 67% of the 2025 total volume.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.07% at 77.8 EUR/t CO2e
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-19 10:58
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.00, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Mildly Firmer Awaiting Fresh Impetus, TYA Support Monitored
Aug-19 10:48
- Treasuries are mildly firmer, gaining through London hours, but with relatively little net reaction to yesterday’s meetings between Trump, Zelenskyy and EU leaders.
- The most important outcome of the talks from the perspective of Ukraine and its European allies will be the pledge from Trump on security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump instructed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to begin work on establishing what these will look like.
- Today sees housing data, a dovish Bowman and then scheduled White House/Trump comments from 1300ET.
- Cash yields are 0.3-1.0bp lower on the day.
- 5s30s at 108.4bps continues to hold close to yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 109.6bps as the year’s steepening theme clearly holds (40bps on Dec 31).
- TYU5 trades at 111-19+ (+03) on thin cumulative volumes of 215k.
- Support is being monitored after yesterday’s low of 111-13+ came close to the 50-day EMA of 111-10+. A push lower could then open 110-23+ (Aug 1 low). To the upside sits resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high) having hit 112-14 prior to Thursday's strong PPI report.
- Data: Housing starts/building permits Jul/Jul prelim (0830ET)
- Fedspeak: Bowman on BBG TV (1000ET), Bowman at Blockchain Symposium (1410ET, text only) – see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: White House Press Sec Leavitt briefing (1300ET), President Trump signs a Congressional Bill (1300ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Support Remains Exposed
Aug-19 10:47
- In FX, EURUSD continues to trade at its latest highs and a short-term bullish outlook is intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1586, the 50-day EMA.
- GBPUSD has pulled back from its latest highs but a bull cycle remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. Sights are on 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. A break of this retracement would strengthen the short-term bull theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3448, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY is in consolidation mode. A bearish threat remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.63, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
