EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rangebound
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 were little changed, balancing gains in equities on US shutdown optimism against weaker TTF. Open interest in EUAs Dec25 as of 10 November dropped to a two-week low and UKAs Dec25 to the lowest in over three months, declining roughly 3% and 5% respectively, since prices hit their nine- and 28-month highs on 4 November. Both contracts have slipped around 3% since 4 Nov.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.18% at 80.1 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.18% at 56.51 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 0.4% at 30.94 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 down 0.3% at 80.54 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.4% at 5685.65
- FTSE 100 DEC 25 up 0.6% at 9887
- Intraday correlation between EUA/TTF near noon at 0.38
- Intraday correlation between EUA/UKA near noon at 0.82
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €79.91/ton CO2e, down 0.08% compared with the previous EU auction at €79.97/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- LSEG said EUAs rally last week was unsustainable and cited it as a temporary spike. It contributed the nearly 5% rally between 3-4 November to optimism over 2040 climate target and Germany’s confirmation on the timeline for introducing an industrial power price.
- TTF has drifted to the low end of its recent range and is nearing yesterday’s low of €30.765/MWh.
- The EU plenary is scheduled to vote on the EU Parliament’s position of the 2040 climate target on 13 November, it said.
- The EU is set to release Q2 2025 greenhouse gas emissions data on 14 November, according to Eurostat.
- IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez remained positive that carbon levy will be adopted eventually and said that progress is continuing to be made, according to the Independent.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
